Ottawa - Arab Canada News:

The latest tracking results from Nanos Research, published on Saturday, April 26, 2025, show that the Liberal Party of Canada, led by Prime Minister Mark Carney, continues to lead national voting intentions by four percentage points over the Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, just 24 hours before the polls open in the crucial federal election.

According to a CTV News and The Globe and Mail poll conducted between April 24 and 26 on a sample of 1,698 voters, the Liberal Party's support stands at 43.0%, showing a slight increase of 0.1 points over the last three days. In contrast, the Conservative Party garnered 38.9% of the voting intentions, with an increase of 0.4 points, indicating a limited but ongoing movement in favor of the Conservatives as the decisive day approaches.

In third place is the New Democratic Party (NDP), led by Jagmeet Singh, which recorded 8.0% of the voting intentions, achieving a notable increase of 0.8 points compared to previous measurements.

The Bloc Québécois, led by Yves-François Blanchet, recorded support at 6.1%, with a slight decline of 0.1 points, which could affect the federal seat equations in the vital province of Quebec.

The Green Party continued its decline, with its support level at 2.8%, down by 0.2 points. The People's Party of Canada (PPC), led by Maxime Bernier, saw a limited gain of 0.3 points, bringing it to 1.1%.

The results indicated that about 7% of voters are still undecided and have not made up their minds, leaving a narrow margin for potential slight shifts in the final moments, especially in swing ridings.

According to the survey methodology, the margin of error is ±2.4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, meaning the race remains capable of tightening further or widening the gap in an unresolved manner, despite the steady lead of the Liberals.

Additional data from the race dynamics:

Despite their lead, the Liberals are facing a field challenge in some rural areas and traditional Conservative strongholds, where polarization is evident.

The Conservatives are relying on an intensive last-minute campaign to rally their voter base and convince the undecided of the need for “change.”

The New Democratic Party aims to solidify its position as a balancing force in the event that the results produce a hung parliament or a minority government.

This four-point gap, if solidified at the polls, could be enough for the Liberals to form a government, whether a majority or a strong minority, given the regional distribution of votes, which is a crucial factor in the Canadian electoral system based on individual ridings.