A recent analytical study confirmed that the extensive Israeli military operation targeting Iran on June 13, 2025, under the name "Rising Lion," represents an unprecedented strategic turning point in the course of the conflict between Israel and Iran, opening the door to complex political and security repercussions that transcend the scope of direct confrontation.

According to the study, the strike — and the subsequent Iranian response — have crossed the conventional red lines that have governed the rules of engagement between the two sides for more than four decades, leading the region into a new phase of open and public escalation.

From ambiguity to preemptive strikes

The study suggests that the Israeli attack reveals a transformation in Israel's military and security doctrine, shifting from a policy of "constructive ambiguity" and limited strikes to adopting a strategy of large-scale preemptive strikes targeting the Iranian depth both humanly and technically.

The operation targeted senior leaders in the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, including Chief of Staff Mohammad Baqeri and Revolutionary Guard Commander Hossein Salami, in addition to 25 scientists specializing in the nuclear and military fields, with the confirmed death of at least 6 of them.

Political and intelligence messages

The study indicates that the operation carried direct messages to the international community, the most prominent being that Israel will not wait for prolonged diplomatic settlements regarding the Iranian nuclear program, and that it is prepared to act unilaterally to defend its national security even if this leads to regional escalation.

The operation also revealed, according to the analysis, a deep Israeli intelligence breach inside Iran, enabling the execution of precise strikes against fortified targets.

Controlled confrontation or the beginning of an open war?

While the study suggests that the confrontation is likely to remain within a limited and calculated framework from both sides, it does not rule out the possibility of sliding into a wider conflict if escalations extend to international interests — particularly American ones — or if diplomatic efforts to contain the situation fail.

The study concluded that the "Rising Lion" attack does not merely constitute a military strike, but rather a redefinition of the strategic rules of the game in the Middle East, and the establishment of a new deterrent equation that may reshape the regional balance of power for decades to come.