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What does Israel's killing of 274 Palestinians during the rescue of the four prisoners mean for the ceasefire talks in Gaza?

What does Israel's killing of 274 Palestinians during the rescue of the four prisoners mean for the ceasefire talks in Gaza?

By Mounira Magdy

Published: June 10, 2024

The dramatic rescue operation carried out by Israel over the weekend for four hostages from the Gaza Strip comes at a sensitive time in the ongoing eight-month war, with local health officials saying it resulted in the deaths of 274 Palestinians, as Israel and Hamas consider a U.S. proposal for a ceasefire and the release of the remaining prisoners.

Both sides are facing renewed pressures to reach an agreement: It is unlikely that a complex rescue operation will be replicated on the scale needed to retrieve the dozens of remaining hostages, and it served as a strong reminder to Israelis that there are still prisoners alive held under harsh conditions, and now Hamas has four fewer bargaining chips.

But they may also hold out, as they have repeatedly over months of indirect negotiations mediated by the United States, Qatar, and Egypt. Hamas still insists on ending the war as part of any agreement, while Israel says it is still committed to destroying the group.

Here’s a look at the implications of the operation and how it could affect ceasefire talks:

Elation and increasing calls for an agreement

This rescue operation was the most successful for Israel since the beginning of the war, as it returned four of approximately 250 captives taken by Hamas in its cross-border attack on October 7, including Noa Argamani, who has become a symbol of the struggle for hostage liberation.

The raid also resulted in the deaths of at least 274 Palestinians, according to Gaza’s Ministry of Health, exacerbating the suffering of Gaza residents who have had to endure the brutal war and humanitarian disaster. The ministry does not differentiate between fighters and civilians in its statistics.

The rescue operation was met with jubilation in Israel, which is still reeling from the Hamas attack and is anguishing over the fate of the eighty prisoners and the remains of over 40 others still held in Gaza. Israeli hardliners are likely to use it as evidence that military pressure alone will bring back the rest.

However, only three other hostages have been released through military force since the start of the war. Israeli forces accidentally killed three others after they fled on their own, and Hamas claims that others were killed in Israeli airstrikes.

Israeli writer Nahum Barnea wrote in the widely read Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper: "If anyone thinks that yesterday's operation absolves the government of the need to reach an agreement, they are living in an illusion; rushing is better."

Even the Israeli military spokesperson, Admiral Daniel Hagari, acknowledged the limits of military force. He told reporters, "What will bring most of the hostages home alive is reaching an agreement."

More than 100 hostages were released during a week-long ceasefire last year in exchange for the release of Palestinians imprisoned by Israel, and reaching a similar agreement is still widely viewed as the only way to secure the return of the remaining hostages. Hours after Saturday’s rescue operation, tens of thousands of Israelis took part in protests in Tel Aviv demanding such a deal.

Last week, U.S. President Joe Biden announced a proposal for a phased plan to achieve a ceasefire and secure the release of hostages, leading to the most focused diplomatic push from the administration to secure a truce.

Biden described it as an Israeli proposal, but Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu publicly questioned some of its aspects, particularly its call for an Israeli troop withdrawal from Gaza and a permanent ceasefire. His partners in the far-right coalition threatened to topple his government if he ended the war without destroying Hamas.

It seems that this has only deepened Hamas’s doubts, which has demanded international guarantees for ending the war. It is unclear whether such guarantees have been offered, and Hamas has not officially responded to the plan yet.

Netanyahu seeks political gains

The rescue operation was a rare victory for Netanyahu, who many Israelis blame for the security failures that led to the October 7 attack and the failure to retrieve the hostages despite months of brutal warfare.

He relished the success of the operation, rushing on Saturday to the hospital where the rescued hostages were held and meeting each one of them while cameras rolled. The rescue operation is likely to help rehabilitate his image.

But as the jubilation fades, he will still face intense pressure from the U.S. administration, which wants to end the war, and from the far-right nationalist base that wants to defeat Hamas at all costs. His main political rival, retired general Benny Gantz, withdrew from the emergency wartime coalition on Sunday, leaving Netanyahu more beholden to hardliners.

Netanyahu is already facing criticism from some families of deceased hostages, who say they did not receive such visits and accuse him of taking credit only for wartime successes. Israel is also likely to face increasing international pressure due to the high Palestinian death toll in the raid.

Writer Ben Caspit wrote in the Israeli newspaper Maariv, "The success in freeing four hostages is a remarkable tactical victory that has not changed our unfortunate strategic position."

All of this requires striking a difficult balance, even for someone like Netanyahu, who is regarded by both friends and foes as a politically skillful figure.

This operation could provide some support among the Israeli public that allows him to justify a deal with Hamas. Or he may conclude that time is on his side, and that he can reach a tougher deal with the group while they grapple with a significant setback.

Hamas loses bargaining chips

Hamas has lost four valuable bargaining chips it had hoped to exchange for prominent Palestinian prisoners. Argamani, who became widely known through a video showing her pleading for her life as militants dragged her away on a motorcycle, is a particularly significant loss for Hamas.

The raid may have also struck a blow to Hamas’s morale. In the October 7 attack, Hamas was able to humiliate a state with a vastly superior army, and since then it has aggressively reorganized despite the devastating military operations throughout Gaza.

But the fact that Israel was able to carry out a complex rescue operation in broad daylight in the middle of a crowded urban area has at least temporarily restored some of the ambiguity lost by Israeli security forces on October 7.

The operation has also refocused global attention on the hostage crisis at a time when the United States is working to rally global pressure on Hamas to accept a ceasefire agreement.

However, Hamas has a long history of withstanding pressure from Israel and others—often at a huge cost borne by the Palestinians. Fighters may conclude that it is better to use the remaining hostages to end the war while they still can—or perhaps they are simply looking for better places to hide them.

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