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Published: January 17, 2024
The American Financial Times newspaper said today that the situation in the Middle East does not seem more solvable or likely to end the crisis, but it can be managed better.
The newspaper explained that the Atlantic Council, a U.S. think tank based in the capital Washington, showed in its survey that a large number of experts believe that the State of Palestine will enjoy peaceful relations with Israel during the next decade.
It pointed out that the Council includes experts who are assumed to look at the situation from a rational perspective and take very little emotional sentiment into account.
The newspaper claimed that before October 7, few in Palestine wanted a two-state solution, noting that the fierce war means there is no possibility for such a solution in the near future.
The report predicted normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel, claiming that this might provide some hope to move forward on the Palestinian issue.
* The Middle East on the brink
The Director of Regional Security at the International Institute for Strategic Studies says in his article in the newspaper that wars do not remain within the borders of countries in the Middle East.
He added that latent sentiments and grievances, foreign intervention, the absence of a regional security process, and the continued weakness of local diplomacy combine to make the chances of the conflict spreading in the Middle East more likely than not.
He mentioned that twenty years ago, the Western invasion of Iraq overturned the regional balance in favor of Iran, which sparked a new era of jihadism across national borders.
And a decade ago, Syria slid into a devastating civil war that attracted major powers and fighters, so it is likely that the regional repercussions resulting from the ongoing war in Gaza will be of the same order and strength.
The writer claimed in his article that forcing Palestine onto the regional agenda was one of Hamas's many goals on October 7.
He added that a few days later, this resulted in U.S. pressures that averted a broad Israeli attack against Hezbollah in Lebanon, and since then, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen have become targets and launch platforms, in addition to geopolitical developments being the success of the Houthis in disrupting maritime navigation in the Bab al-Mandab Strait, according to the writer.
The writer continued that the Israeli attack on Gaza is still ongoing, which leads to antagonizing the local population.
It is not surprising that Iran and Israel will decide whether the conflict will turn into a full-scale war or remain a competition for regional influence.
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