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Published: March 15, 2024
Local officials announced today, Thursday, that Ukraine launched at least eight rockets at the Russian border region of Belgorod, killing two people and injuring 12 others.
The attack was the latest attempt by Kyiv to destabilize the Kremlin on the eve of the Russian presidential elections, which are taking place amid a harsh crackdown on the opposition.
Ukrainian forces also attempted cross-border raids and were repelled in Belgorod and the Kursk region, according to local authorities.
The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that its forces killed 195 Ukrainian soldiers and destroyed five tanks and four armored infantry vehicles, two days after announcing that they killed 234 Ukrainian soldiers in another border attack.
It is not possible to independently verify the Russian claims.
Several media outlets - including The Moscow Times and the British Guardian newspaper - reported pro-Ukrainian and anti-Kremlin groups consisting of Russian fighters participating in cross-border incidents in the border provinces of Belgorod and Kursk today.
Cross-border attacks in the region have occurred intermittently since the start of the war and have been the subject of claims and counterclaims, as well as misinformation and propaganda.
The Belgorod region has witnessed repeated drone attacks and was even subjected to stray fire by a Russian warplane during Moscow's war with Ukraine.
The deadly Ukrainian strike hit the regional capital Belgorod itself on December 30, shocking the residents.
Expected return to power
The recent Ukrainian attacks into Russian territory, including long-range drone strikes and alleged incursions by Russian agents based in Ukraine, come as Russian President Vladimir Putin is almost certain to be re-elected.
Putin seeks to convince Russians to keep him in power against the backdrop of what he says are external threats to the country as the Ukrainian war enters its third year.
In a video released on Thursday, Putin called on Russians to head to the polls, describing participation in the elections as "a manifestation of national feeling."
Putin said, "The elections are a step towards the future."
Since coming to power nearly 25 years ago, Putin has eliminated almost all independent media and opposition voices in Russia, especially after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 which initially went badly.
Analysts say the Kremlin is worried about low turnout during the three days of voting starting Friday and needs Russian participation to legitimize Putin, who is almost certain to win another six-year term.
Sam Greene, from the Center for European Policy Analysis in Washington, described the Russian elections as "fake."
Greene told the Associated Press: "The Kremlin controls who is on the ballot. The Kremlin controls how they conduct their campaigns."
"Not to mention the ability to control every aspect of voting and the vote counting process."
Kyiv awaits delayed Western aid
Despite Russia's early difficulties in the war, when its attack on Kyiv failed and Western countries rushed to help Ukraine by sending weapons and training troops, military analysts say Kremlin forces now hold the initiative on the battlefield.
This is largely due to Western aid fading because of European shortages, and it is now stalled in the United States due to political disagreements.
The Washington-based research center Institute for the Study of War said Russian forces "have the initiative at the operational level and will be able to determine the time, place, and scale of offensive operations" on the battlefield at present.
The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) said the Russian offensive is gaining momentum and that the coming months are "critical in the direction of the conflict."
North Atlantic Treaty Organization Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg warned today, Thursday, that delays in delivering supplies to Ukraine cost lives.
Stoltenberg told reporters in Brussels: "The courage of Ukrainians does not run out, but their ammunition does."
While Ukraine struggles with increasingly scarce battlefield resources, Russia has significantly expanded its weapons production and obtains ammunition from Iran and North Korea.
The International Institute for Strategic Studies said in a report on Wednesday that this bodes ill for Ukraine once Putin consolidates his grip on power.
It added: "During the spring and summer seasons, Russia is likely to launch a series of major attacks designed to inflict Ukrainian casualties, push defenders westward, and expand control over occupied territories."
It said "the ground war currently appears bloody" and favors Moscow.
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