The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) announced in its monthly report issued today, Wednesday, May 14, 2025, that it has maintained its forecasts for global oil demand growth for 2025 and 2026, after having downgraded them last month.

Global Oil Demand Forecast

OPEC expects global oil demand to increase by 1.4 million barrels per day in both 2025 and 2026. This growth is mainly attributed to increased consumption in non-OECD countries, particularly in Asia, including China and India, as well as in the Middle East and Latin America.

Supply Forecasts from Outside OPEC

Conversely, OPEC has lowered its forecasts for oil supply growth from non-OPEC+ countries for 2025 to 800,000 barrels per day, compared to the previous forecast of 900,000 barrels per day. This adjustment is attributed to a recent decline in oil prices, leading to reduced investments in exploration and production outside of OPEC+.

Economic and Trade Challenges

OPEC noted that the recent trade agreement between the United States and China for 90 days could support the stability of trade flows, despite the continued high tariffs compared to where they were before the recent escalation.

The organization emphasizes that these forecasts reflect cautious optimism regarding market stability, with a focus on monitoring global economic and trade developments that may impact future demand.