The resignation of Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his decision to suspend parliamentary work (postponing the parliamentary session) until March 24 have raised questions about the timing of the upcoming federal elections. This move gives the Liberal Party time to choose a new leader, but it also affects the possible scenarios for a government collapse and going to elections.

Major impacts on the timing of the elections:

1. Suspending parliamentary work postpones the confidence vote:

By suspending Parliament, the Liberals avoid facing a confidence vote during the winter, giving them a period of temporary stability until Parliament resumes.

2. Choosing new party leadership:

The Liberal Party will need to select a new leader before Parliament resumes. The timing of the leader's selection will be a decisive factor in determining the party's ability to prepare for the elections.

3. Risk of a confidence vote when Parliament resumes:

The Liberals are expected to deliver the throne speech upon Parliament’s return, which may be considered a confidence vote. If the opposition parties unite and vote against the government, this could lead to its downfall and early elections.

4. Pressure from opposition parties:

All major opposition parties have declared their commitment to bringing down the minority Liberal government at the earliest opportunity. This increases the likelihood of elections being held as soon as Parliament returns.

5. Legislative deadlines:

The government faces deadlines for submitting new expenditure estimates. If it fails to meet these commitments, the Liberals may face harsh criticisms, further pressuring the timing of the elections.

Possible scenarios:

• The quickest scenario: Elections could be held in late March or early April if the government loses the confidence vote immediately after Parliament resumes.

• The likely scenario: The government may attempt to calm the situation and postpone the elections until summer or early fall, that is, before the deadline in October.

• The far-off scenario: If the Liberals succeed in bolstering their stability under new leadership, they may decide to wait until the scheduled election date in October.

Conclusion

Trudeau's resignation and the suspension of Parliament give the Liberals extra time, but they put the government in a precarious position once Parliament returns. The timing of the elections heavily depends on the swift selection of a new leader for the Liberal Party and the government's ability to withstand the pressures from the opposition parties.