The Israeli newspaper Haaretz considered that the outbreak of a full-scale war between Israel and the Lebanese Hezbollah is expected since last October 8, but what is unknown is the extent of the destruction this war will cause to the civilian infrastructure in Israel, especially in light of the absence of American support for this war.

Writer Dalia Shendelin mentioned in a report in Haaretz that Hezbollah’s firing on Israeli sites from southern Lebanon since the beginning of the war between Hamas and Israel led to the evacuation of about 80,000 Israelis and 75,000 Lebanese from the border areas.

Israel escalates and Hezbollah seeks to avoid a large-scale war

According to the report, Hezbollah seeks to avoid a large-scale war, which was clearly evident in the speeches of its leader Hassan Nasrallah, while Israeli leaders on the other hand are working to adopt a more aggressive approach towards the party.

The Israeli government is considering launching a large preemptive strike, which was supported by Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, but US opposition has so far prevented this from happening.

The war on the border is still raging, with Hezbollah firing anti-tank shells, as well as using suicide drones and rockets, in return for Israeli air raids, which have caused the deaths of several Hezbollah fighters, Lebanese civilians, and several Israelis including soldiers and civilians.

According to Haaretz, the Israeli political leadership has adopted a hardline rhetoric in front of the public, calling to strike Hezbollah forcefully, while war cabinet member Benny Gantz threatened military options if diplomatic solutions fail, adding that Israel can conduct military action against Hezbollah regardless of reaching a ceasefire with Hamas.

Israel’s attack on Lebanon has been expected since 2022

Haaretz sees that Israelis had the idea of waging war against Lebanon even before the war with Hamas, where an article published in Israel Hayom newspaper on October 6, 2022, called for striking Lebanon, a year before the war between Israel and Hamas.

Has Israel thought about the costs of the war with Hezbollah?

The newspaper added another question regarding how Israel convinces itself to open another front with Hezbollah, which possesses weapons far more destructive and multiplied many times more than Hamas, and wondered: Has anyone thought about the costs?

Hezbollah is expected to attack Israeli infrastructure first according to Haaretz, raising the question of how Tel Aviv would operate without electricity, schools, hospitals, and supermarkets?

The newspaper also pointed to a document circulated on social media bearing the emblem of the Ministry of Justice, containing instructions in case of a full-scale war in the north and attacks on power stations, warning of power outages, and advising storing water and mobile phone batteries.

Haaretz referred to an article by Saudi foreign policy researcher Aziz Al-Ghishan, who confirmed that Iran is more committed to Hezbollah than to Hamas, increasing the chances of conflict expansion, as the Biden administration seeks to avoid a regional war and will work to stop it quickly, as confirmed by Frederick Hoff, a diplomat residing at Bard College.

Hoff confirmed that the administration is concerned that "Hezbollah will target civilians, and Israeli officials have already promised to hold Lebanon accountable for the party's actions."

This situation may lead to heavy civilian casualties and severe damage to infrastructure and property on the Blue Line side, as well as endangering Americans, which makes the US administration seek to seriously stop the escalation.

A war against Hezbollah poses a risk to Israel’s future relations

Haaretz wondered who would stand by Israel in the event of this war, especially if Tel Aviv initiates a preemptive war.

According to Al-Ghishan, Saudi Arabia will see that it should not trust Israel to avoid regional escalation, and that Israel will be a security burden on it and not just a potential strategic asset.

The newspaper also concluded that Israeli political leaders and analysts alike avoid talking about the high costs of this war, such as destructive attacks against infrastructure, regional expansion of the war, lack of US support, and strained relations with countries Israel hopes to normalize relations with.