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Published: April 15, 2023
With inflation continuing to decline, the Bank of Canada announced on Wednesday that it would keep the interest rate at 4.5 percent for the second consecutive time.
The bank did not announce any plans to lower interest rates in the near future, but nevertheless, mortgage rates in Canada have been trending downward.
Also, according to Ratehub.ca, the lowest five-year fixed mortgage rate available in Canada is 4.29 percent, down from 4.59 percent on March 1. The three-year fixed rates have dropped to 4.34 percent, from 4.79 percent at the beginning of March.
Part of this is related to the fact that bond yields in Canada have decreased, which is a signal that the market expects an interest rate cut on the horizon.
Should you get a fixed or variable rate mortgage?
Jackie Porter, a certified financial planner and partner at Carte Wealth Management, noted that we also find ourselves in a rare position where variable rates are higher than fixed rates.
He told CTVNews.ca in a phone interview today: "For the first time in a long time, fixed rates are actually lower than being on a variable mortgage, which is crazy. So this is a really good indicator that rates will go down." Thursday.
Canadians entering the housing market or about to renew their mortgage currently face a dilemma: should they take a more expensive variable rate expecting interest rates to fall, or lock in a cheaper fixed rate?
Porter said many consumers are taking a middle approach: choosing a two- or three-year fixed mortgage. These mortgage rates are slightly more expensive than the five-year fixed rate but offer greater flexibility than the five-year rates and are currently cheaper than variable rates.
He added: "Short-term fixed rates are more popular now than ever. People expect rates to be lower in two or three years, for example, which is why they want to renew in two or three years instead of the traditional five-year fixed rate."
It is still unclear whether the Bank of Canada will lower interest rates and when, as Governor Tiff Macklem said rate cuts in the near future "do not seem like the most likely scenario for us," and did not rule out the possibility of raising rates to fully bring inflation down to 2 percent.
Meanwhile, economists said a rate cut could happen either by the end of this year or early 2024, indicating concerns about a possible mild recession on the horizon, as well as the fact that many banks in Europe and the United States have faced problems. Even in the case of a rate cut, its potential size is also unclear and could depend on whether we enter a deep or shallow recession.
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