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Scenarios and expectations …… Awaiting Hassan Nasrallah's speech on Friday

Scenarios and expectations …… Awaiting Hassan Nasrallah's speech on Friday

By م.زهير الشاعر

Published: November 2, 2023

The newspaper "Haaretz" suggested in its report that the number of viewers of the awaited speech by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah on Friday will exceed the combined viewers of the Spanish and English El Clásico matches.

Haim Levinson wrote in Haaretz that "Israel and the Middle East region, and I would not exaggerate to say the world, are at a complex and thorny crossroads, and what comes next is open to all possibilities. Nasrallah’s speech may hold the key to decoding the map of what is to come."

Levinson pointed to three scenarios for what the Secretary-General might say, with no fourth option.

The first is that "his speech will be general, describing the political and military developments on the southern and northern fronts and affirming that victory will be for the people of Gaza. This scenario is very unlikely given the scale of destruction and casualties in the sector, and the party would lose credibility."

The second is that "the speech will have a high ceiling... and Nasrallah will set red lines, stating that if Israel crosses them, the party will participate or expand the confrontation in the north significantly. I believe this threat will be directed not only at Israel but clearly also at America. This scenario is the most likely to happen."

The third scenario is "an Armageddon scenario. Nasrallah would announce in the first minutes of his speech that missiles are now on their way to Tel Aviv and that the Radwan forces have entered the Galilee. Although this scenario is unlikely, the security and military institution is seriously considering it since the announcement of the speech timing."

It adds that "there is great concern and confusion for Netanyahu, who has received recommendations from the security agency leaders advising to 'announce the end of military operations' before the speech."

The writer adds: "Between a political leadership whose mandate has ended, an army unprepared for combat, and deep internal division, the State of Israel faces today its worst nightmare since its establishment, and whether we like it or not, we are waiting for what one man will say on Friday."

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