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Israel and Iran downplay the obvious airstrike and expectations for de-escalation of tensions between the two countries at this time.

Israel and Iran downplay the obvious airstrike and expectations for de-escalation of tensions between the two countries at this time.

By Mounira Magdy

Published: April 19, 2024

Israel and Iran downplayed the significance of the Israeli airstrike near a major airbase and a nuclear site in central Iran on Friday, indicating that the two sworn enemies are prepared to prevent recent outbreaks of violence from escalating into a full-scale regional war.

Amos Harel, military affairs commentator for the Israeli daily Haaretz, wrote: "It seems we are closer than ever to a wide-scale regional war, despite the fact that the international community will likely make a great effort to calm tensions."

Israel has long regarded Iran as its biggest enemy - citing the Islamic Republic's calls for the destruction of Israel, its controversial nuclear program, and its support for hostile proxies across the Middle East.

These tensions have escalated since Hamas and Islamic Jihad, the Palestinian groups backed by Iran, attacked Israel on October 7, leading to a devastating Israeli assault on Gaza that has lasted for more than six months. Hezbollah, Iran's proxy in Lebanon, immediately began striking Israeli targets, opening a second front of mutual fighting, while Iran-aligned militias in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen launched missiles and drones at Israel around the globe.

While Israel and Iran have waged a shadow war for years, mostly in neighboring Syria, they have largely avoided direct confrontations. That changed after an airstrike on April 1 killed two Iranian generals at an Iranian diplomatic compound in the Syrian capital of Damascus. Although Israel did not comment, Iran blamed Israel for the attack and vowed revenge.

Iran responded with its first-ever direct attack on Israel, launching over 300 missiles and attack drones late Saturday night. Israel, working with the U.S.-led international coalition, claimed to have intercepted 99% of incoming fire, although a number of missiles managed to land, causing minor damage to an Israeli military base and seriously injuring a young girl.

In the Friday attack, Iranian state television reported that air defense batteries fired in multiple provinces after reports of drones flying in the air. Iranian army chief General Abdolrahim Mousavi stated that crews targeted several flying objects.

Mousavi said that "the explosion that occurred this morning in the sky over Isfahan was related to the air defense systems firing at a suspicious object and did not cause any damage."

Authorities stated that air defenses fired at a major airbase near Isfahan, which has long been home to Iran's fleet of U.S.-made F-14 Tomcat aircraft, purchased before the Islamic Revolution in 1979.

Isfahan is also home to sites linked to Iran's nuclear program, including the underground enrichment facility in Natanz, which has been targeted repeatedly by suspected Israeli sabotage attacks. The apparent attack on Friday came on the 85th birthday of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

The state television described all Iranian nuclear sites in those areas as "totally secure." The United Nations' International Atomic Energy Agency also stated that no damage had occurred to Iranian nuclear sites.

Iranian officials did not refer to a possible Israeli involvement. This may have been intentional, especially after Iranian officials had threatened for days to respond to any Israeli retaliatory strike.

Israel did not comment on the apparent attack, although hardline government minister Itamar Ben Gvir hinted at his displeasure with a one-word tweet early Friday, using slang for weak or lame.

However, Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani stated at a summit of Western leaders in Capri that the United States received "last-minute" information from Israel regarding the attack. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken did not dispute that, but said: "We did not participate in any offensive operations."

Yoel Guzansky, a former Iran affairs expert in the Israeli Prime Minister's Office, said that Israel seemingly carried out the attack to "check the box" by sending a message to Iran without doing anything too provocative that might upset the United States, which had urged restraint and not to provoke further Iranian retaliation.

Guzansky, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies, a research center in Tel Aviv, said: "It seems very limited, to send a message that we can hit you inside Iran."

He added that "the current round" of violence appears to have ended, but "nothing has changed," as Israel still faces Iranian-backed threats on various fronts.

He added, "I see other rounds coming." The next time, if Iran surprises Israel or its allies do not help defend Israel, "the outcome will be different."

For his part, United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called for an end to the strikes.

His office stated: "It is time to stop the dangerous cycle of retaliation in the Middle East."

Charles Lister, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington and a long-time regional analyst, challenged Iranian claims that drones carried out the attacks. He added that it appears instead that a small number of Israeli aircraft took off from Israel over Syria and struck at least two military bases in southern Syria with air defense systems all along the way.

He stated that they then entered Iraqi airspace, where they launched a small number of Blue Sparrow ballistic missiles, likely without ever entering Iranian airspace at all.

He further added that reports of explosions in Iraq support this scenario, as does the debris from what appears to be an Israeli-made Blue Sparrow missile booster that Iraqi security forces found in a field outside Baghdad.

He said, "In other words, the Israelis would never have needed to enter Iranian airspace to carry out this attack." "I think this was Israel's way of sending the message that we can reach you wherever we want."

If this latest round has calmed down, Israel can now refocus on its ongoing war in Gaza and the fierce fighting with Hezbollah. With neither of these fronts backing down, the risk of further confrontations with Iran remains high, although neither side appears eager after the apparent Israeli attack on Friday.

Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran Program at the Middle East Institute, stated: "No side is willing to jump over the edge." But he added a major warning.

He said, "It's possible that we will return to the proxy war," but it is now a proxy war with the risk of "that sudden explosion of war between state and state, which we did not have to worry about before."

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