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Published: March 29, 2024
The Canadian Statistics Agency said on Thursday that real GDP in Canada grew by 0.6 percent in January, helped by the end of public sector strikes in Quebec in November and December.
The agency added that it expects growth to continue in February, with a preliminary estimate indicating an increase of 0.4 percent for that month, supported by strength in the mining, quarrying, oil and gas extraction, manufacturing, and finance and insurance sectors.
Andrew Grantham, Chief Economist at CIBC Bank, said the Canadian economy appears to have started 2024 on the fast track.
He wrote in a note to clients: "Although growth in January was steady due to the rebound of the public sector following strike activity in Quebec, strong momentum also seems to have extended into February."
Grantham added that with first-quarter growth overall much higher than the Bank of Canada's previous expectations, there is no urgent need for the central bank to cut interest rates at its April meeting.
He said, "However, a move in June is still possible if labor market conditions continue to slow and core inflation maintains its downward momentum."
The Bank of Canada's key interest rate is set at five percent. The central bank expects to be able to start cutting interest rates sometime this year, but according to the latest summary of deliberations, its officials are divided on the timing.
The inflation rate was 2.8 percent year-over-year in February, but the central bank remains concerned that inflation risks are trending higher than expected, especially with housing costs continuing to rise.
The Canadian Statistics Agency said on Thursday that economic growth in January came with a 1.9 percent rise in the public sector, which includes educational services, healthcare, social assistance, and public administration, after two consecutive monthly declines.
The educational services sector rose 6.0 percent after declines in November and December due to strikes in Quebec, while the healthcare and social assistance sector, also affected by the strikes, increased by 0.8 percent.
Overall, 18 out of 20 sectors rose in January, with service-producing industries increasing by 0.7 percent while goods-producing industries added 0.2 percent.
The manufacturing sector grew by 0.9 percent in January, while the utilities sector increased by 3.2 percent as temperatures dropped in parts of the country.
The mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction sector declined by 1.9 percent, with oil and gas extraction down 4.4 percent.
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