With the start of the summer travel season, Canadians and visitors may find themselves waiting in long lines at the border – a delay that could also hit the economy.

It all depends on what happens with the potential strike by workers at the Canada Border Services Agency, which could start on Thursday.

What is happening here?

More than 9,000 members of the Canadian Public Service Alliance working for the Canada Border Services Agency, including border guards, have received a strike mandate. Both sides will enter mediation on June 3, and the union will be in a position to strike as of June 6.

The union says similar actions taken three years ago "almost led to commercial traffic stalling at the border, causing significant delays at airports and borders across the country."

But the Treasury Board says 90% of frontline border officers have been designated as essential, meaning they cannot stop working during the strike.

So, how disruptive could the strike be?

Union members could employ the work-to-rule principle, a tactic where employees perform their jobs exactly as spelled out in their contracts.

Ian Lee, an associate professor at Carleton University's Business School, said this means crossing the border could take much longer than usual, and he noted it would be a problem not only for tourists but also disrupt the economy, given that $2.5 billion worth of goods crosses the border each day.

The Treasury Board emphasized that "essential service employees must provide uninterrupted border services. They cannot work to rule and cannot intentionally slow down border processing."

A spokesperson for the Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) stated that it would discipline workers who "engage in illegal job actions."

But Lee pointed out that border workers have wide discretion when it comes to asking questions. He said it is unclear how the government could argue that an officer "is breaking the law by using their discretion and full authority."

Stephanie Ross, an associate professor in Labor Studies at McMaster University, said there is a logistical barrier to the government taking any action. She noted that the work-to-rule means literally following job duties.

"People will do their jobs, even if it is to the fullest extent. How can you discipline people for following procedures?”

Ross said the work-to-rule principle could be highly effective.

A border crossing that might typically take 10 extra minutes because the officer does everything by the book could have a "massively disruptive impact amplified by thousands of individuals and semi-trailers and various types of transport coming into Canada."

What do CBSA employees want?

Mark Weber, the national president of the Customs and Immigration Union, which is part of PSAC, said the work-to-rule principle could be devastating, but the union "has not reached that point yet."

Weber noted that members want wage parity with other law enforcement agencies, as the union is looking at an RCMP first-class constable's salary for comparison.

The Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) is also suffering from a shortage of thousands of staff, and the union wants these vacancies filled with permanent employees, not contract substitutes.

Weber said other issues include retirement benefits and protections around "strict discipline."

Another concern for the union is that technology will take over jobs that officers might otherwise do, such as kiosks that have appeared at Canadian airports.

Weber said the Canada Border Services Agency "is almost trying to create a self-service checkout system, like you see in grocery stores, at our borders."

He added that this amounts to "waiting for smugglers to declare themselves without officers present, which is extremely concerning from a national security perspective."

There is a connection to the struggle of public service unions over work-from-home arrangements.

What does the new public service mandate have to do with border guards?

Ottawa recently announced that federal employees must work from the office at least three days a week, starting in September. Public service unions responded by pledging a "summer of discontent" over the new policy.

Then-PSAC President Chris Aylward noted that this includes the strike at the Canada Border Services Agency, stating at a previous press conference, "The government should brace for a summer of discontent. Whatever form that takes, whether at the border or at the airports."

Weber said remote work is a major issue for the union, with over 2,000 of its members working remotely or having done so in the past, including during the COVID-19 pandemic. The union wants to see remote work explicitly included in the collective agreement.

He added that the government had previously promised to form committees and consult on work-from-home arrangements but then broke that promise by announcing a three-day-per-week work mandate for everyone.

This means the union would be skeptical if the government presented another letter of understanding. "What is the value of that anymore?”

How likely is a strike?

Treasury Board spokesman Martin Boutin said in a statement, "We are still at the negotiating table, committed to negotiating a fair deal for employees and reasonable for Canadian taxpayers."

He added, "With a shared commitment to negotiate in good faith, we are optimistic about reaching an agreement quickly."

Weber said it is up to the government "to propose the contract to avoid a strike. We are always ready to sit down and negotiate a fair contract."

Ross said in the lead-up to a strike, there is always an element of positioning, but the 96% voting in favor of a strike was "very strong."

She noted that many of the issues are the same as those that arose when the union struck in 2021.

"If we look somewhat to the long term, there are reasons to believe that things have been deteriorating at the Canada Border Services Agency, and that makes the mobilization we see on the union side more important to take seriously."

Workers have been negotiating without a collective agreement for two years, meaning, as Ross pointed out, that "there is a lot of built-up frustration over wage stagnation."

She said this is the moment both sides are waiting to see which one wants to back down, and the government may not think the union "has enough organization and unity to do something that would be destructive."

But they might find out, perhaps we will all find out.”