The federal government confirms that the promised oil and gas emissions framework in Canada can be released any day.

Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault — currently in Dubai attending the 2023 United Nations Climate Change Conference, known as COP28 — said on Friday he "would be shocked if this framework is not introduced by the end of this conference."

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau confirmed that the Liberal government's plan to impose a cap on emissions from the oil and gas sector was during a previous COP summit in 2021.

Guilbeault said Friday, "Recent legal setbacks were among the reasons the government is taking longer to develop that framework."

Adding, "The Supreme Court's decision on impact assessment and the Federal Court's ruling on plastics ... means we have to ensure it addresses pollution without infringing on provincial jurisdiction."

The Supreme Court recently ruled that a federal law governing environmental impact assessments encroached on provincial jurisdiction, while the Federal Court decision designated all manufactured plastic materials as "toxic" under Environment Canada.

Private emissions models in Ottawa and independent forecasts show that Canada is not on track to meet emissions reduction targets.

Since 2005, Canada has seen steep emissions cuts in the electricity sector and some modest reductions elsewhere, meanwhile, emissions from the oil and gas industry have grown with production.

The Canadian Climate Institute sees its independent models indicating that an emissions cap for the oil and gas sector is needed to achieve climate goals in this country.

Anna Candideau recently told reporters that the cap alone will not do the trick.

She added that pairing the cap with enhanced methane regulations could help Canada meet its 2030 goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by at least 40 percent below 2005 levels.

In October, Canada pledged to accelerate its methane emissions reduction plan for the oil and gas sector to achieve at least a 75 percent cut from 2012 levels.

Candideau continued: "Reducing emissions from oil and gas is critical to bringing Canada's 2030 goals within reach." "And the emissions cap along with those stronger regulations can do that."

Before landing in Dubai, Guilbeault hinted that Canada may unveil enhanced methane regulations at COP28. He also said Canada is working with Washington on the file.

Methane is one of the planet's most potent greenhouse gases.

Methane emissions from oilfields and oil and gas operations are widely seen as an easy and necessary step to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, the standard set by the 2015 Paris Agreement.

Guilbeault told reporters Friday: "Together and globally, if we are ambitious in our efforts to address methane emissions, we can shave nearly 1 degree Celsius off potential warming by 2100," "That's huge."

The industry supports emissions reductions

The Pathways Alliance, representing the largest six oil companies, said it does not oppose sectoral emissions caps.

The question is whether the cap will be too restrictive and limit the industry's ability to grow production?

Mark Cameron, Vice President of External Relations at Pathways said: "We support the federal government's efforts to make significant emission reductions by 2030 and its goal of net zero by 2050," "however, reaching that requires a practical and realistic approach to reduce emissions while protecting jobs, investment, and helping provide global energy security."

The federal government's emissions reduction plan calls for the oil and gas sector to cut emissions to 42 percent below 2019 levels by 2030.

The Pathways Alliance explained the target is not achievable in that timeframe, and if applied to oil sands, it would mean emissions of about 35 megatonnes without accounting for production growth.

Regarding industry’s view of the Alberta provincial government.

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith said Thursday that her government will oppose the pending regulations.

She added, "We have been very clear in saying we oppose any kind of arbitrary emissions cap, whether it is on oil and gas emissions or methane."

The federal Conservative Party also opposes the oil and gas emissions cap imposed by Ottawa.

How the cap might affect production

Federal Energy Minister Jonathan Wilkinson is working alongside Guilbeault to develop the oil and gas framework and regulations.

Last month, he said any Ottawa cap proposed "will be informed by logic" and allow Canada to compete with other oil-producing countries.

Canada is the fourth largest oil producer globally and the fifth largest natural gas producer.

Wilkinson said at a recent press conference, "We want to make sure we're doing this in a thoughtful, rigorous way, that it's informed by logic and puts pressure on as many as possible, because otherwise, it will make us poorer in Canada and make our American friends and those in Saudi Arabia or anywhere else richer."

Guilbeault said the forthcoming framework will provide a "clear-language" version of the climate policy before the government commits to drafting regulations.

He continued saying the framework will also describe the enforcement mechanism Ottawa will use to ensure compliance by oil and gas producers.

The federal government indicated it may use a cap-and-trade system to allow companies to buy and trade a limited number of emission allowances or permits, which will decrease over time to reflect the emissions cap.

The government also said it may impose a carbon price increase on oil and gas producers to ensure emissions comply with the cap.

Guilbeault did not reveal specific emission limits for the sector. He said the framework will indicate "the range in terms of emission reductions for the sector."

Canada's emissions reduction plan calls for oil and gas sector emissions to be reduced to 110 megatonnes by 2030. The New Democratic Party said the oil and gas cap should reflect that.

Taylor Bachrach, NDP, said, "If the government chooses to allow the industry to contribute less than what is stated, I think they owe Canadians and other sectors of our economy an explanation as to why more is expected of them."

Alex Cole-Fergus, National Policy Director for the Climate Action Network Canada, said the cap needs to have quick legal enforcement after the framework release, adding "There is no time to waste. This cap must be imposed on the oil and gas sector if Canada wants any chance to meet our emission targets."

Guilbeault said draft regulations "will follow in the coming months," and in remarks recorded by an environmental organization at COP28, he said draft regulations will be presented in the new year or as soon as possible.