Economists say inflation is likely to rise again in February amid rising gasoline prices, reinforcing expectations that the journey back to 2 percent inflation will be difficult.

The Canadian Statistics Agency is scheduled to release the Consumer Price Index report for February on Tuesday. The consensus forecast among forecasters is that prices rose by 3.1 percent compared to last year.

This would reflect some progress made in January, when the annual inflation rate slowed to 2.9 percent.

"We expect inflation to accelerate again due to rising energy prices during the month," said Royce Mendes, Managing Director and Head of Macro Strategy at Desjardins. “It seems that over the next few months, inflation is likely to rebound around the three percent range.”

Rising inflation will complicate matters a little for the Bank of Canada, which is widely expected to start cutting interest rates in the coming months.

But Mendes says what will be more important to watch on Tuesday is the measure of core price pressures, which help economists gauge the direction inflation is heading.

Mendes said: "The real question is what is happening beneath the surface,

Governor Tiff Macklem noted that nearly half of the Consumer Price Index components are currently rising at a pace of more than three percent. In more typical inflationary times, only about a quarter of the Consumer Price Index components would rise this quickly.

The central bank has also emphasized trends in the economy and inflation during the monthly reports.

At the same time, Macklem stressed that the central bank does not want to lower interest rates prematurely, and will therefore wait until there is clearer evidence that inflation is moving back towards the bank’s 2 percent target soon.

Douglas Porter, Chief Economist at BMO, said: "This will be the first piece of evidence from the bank’s library on why caution is warranted."

The Bank of Canada has kept the key interest rate steady at five percent since July, awaiting more evidence that inflation is approaching two percent.

Its latest forecast indicates that inflation will reach this target in 2025, a forecast shared by many economists.

Porter says one source of uncertainty in these forecasts comes from energy prices, which usually have a significant impact on overall inflation.

He said: "Oil prices can move very quickly, making many inflation forecasts look quite foolish."

Tuesday’s report will be the last inflation reading before the Bank of Canada announces its interest rate in April, which Porter described as a “critical decision.”