At the Calgary Newcomer Centre, where Kelly Ernst serves as the Senior Program Manager, the staff were - in Ernst's words - "running at a fast pace."

The nonprofit organization, which provides services and language training for immigrants and refugees in Alberta's largest city, served 50,000 clients last year, a significant increase from the previous year, as well as a substantial rise from pre-pandemic times.

Ernst said, "These numbers are 100 percent higher than the previous year and have tripled from what they were five years ago, and for some services, the numbers have increased by more than 400 percent over two years."

The significant rise in demand for newcomer services in Calgary reflects the record population growth in Alberta, which has come with both upsides and downsides.

In 2023, the western province saw its population increase by 202,324 residents to 4.8 million, according to Statistics Canada.

This is the largest annual increase in Alberta's history, equivalent to 550 people moving to the province each day. While the majority of the growth came from international immigration, reflecting a nationwide trend, Alberta also set a national record in 2023 for interprovincial immigration with a net increase of 55,107 people, the highest number ever recorded by any province.

Most of these interprovincial migrants came from Ontario and British Columbia, with Statistics Canada estimating that 38,236 people from Ontario moved to Alberta last year, compared to just 14,860 from Alberta who moved to Ontario.

Alberta has always been a place that experiences periods of sudden and exciting population growth. The province's oil and gas-driven economy has attracted waves of job seekers during historical periods of rising commodity prices and busy oil correction activity.

Mark Parsons, chief economist at ATB Financial, said that what is happening in Alberta now is different from the past.

Parsons explained, "Alberta's economy is relatively strong, and thus the rapid job growth rate is contributing to the influx of people coming to the province, undoubtedly."

The difference this time is that affordability plays an important role - particularly the affordability of housing.

Experts say that the housing crisis in Canada, along with the affordability of Alberta's real estate market compared to places like Toronto and Vancouver, is one of the reasons the province has become a destination for many U-Haul trucks and moving vans.

In fact, affordability was one of the reasons that Alberta's government pitched during its "Alberta is Calling" advertising campaign, which launched in the spring of 2023 in southern Ontario and Atlantic Canada. The campaign encouraged Canadians who cannot afford a home they can live in to consider moving to Alberta, which has relatively high wages and lower property prices.

While the campaign has been a resounding success from a marketing perspective, Alberta's population boom has its downsides. The sharp increase in the population has helped drive economic growth, support retail and restaurant sales in the province, and led to a wave of construction activity, but it has also made Alberta's affordable properties less affordable.

Calgary real estate agent Don Heron Moser said, "In 2022, it seemed like everyone was saying: Alberta is for sale, this is great, this is amazing."

"But now people from here are starting to wonder: Is this amount still for sale? Because we here in Alberta are struggling to buy our homes."

Bidding wars in Calgary

In Calgary, the benchmark home price reached $597,600 in March, nearly an 11 percent increase from the previous year, according to the Calgary Real Estate Board. There are many stories about wild bidding wars among buyers willing to waive all conditions and offer tens of thousands over the asking price, a phenomenon that has become common in hot markets like Toronto and Vancouver.

Calgary and Edmonton also witnessed the largest acceleration in rental prices among major Canadian cities in 2023, with Calgary specifically seeing the average rent for a two-bedroom apartment jump by 14.3 percent in 2023, the highest annual growth in the country and the largest single-year increase in rental growth the city has experienced since 2007, according to data from CMHC.

Adam Legg, chair of the Alberta Business Council, stated that new homes are not being built quickly enough to keep up with growth in the province. There are other signs of strain as well. Newcomers to Alberta are struggling to find family doctors, and the unprecedented growth in school enrollment has led to overcrowded classrooms.

There is also a shortage of construction workers, carpenters, and all other skilled tradespeople needed to build everything from homes to schools to roads as quickly as possible.

Legg said, "We are not seeing a sufficient influx of new Albertans, either on a regional or international level, who have that kind of skills and qualifications."

While the pace of population growth in Alberta is expected to slow this year and into 2025, ATB Financial expects it to remain strong compared to most other parts of Canada and advanced economies around the world.

There is likely to be sustainable long-term growth. The province's economy is diverse, creating opportunities for workers in sectors unrelated to oil and gas, such as technology and aviation, and proximity to the Rocky Mountains and some of Canada's favorite national parks continues to draw tourists.

The Alberta government's forecasts call for the province's population to reach six million as early as 2039.

Ernst from the Newcomer Centre said, "We really need to start looking at Alberta and the West in general differently," adding that provincial and federal governments need to prepare for the impending growth by investing in housing, infrastructure, and programs and education.

"We really need to think critically about resource allocation in this country - and truly understand where people are moving, where they are settling, and where some of the population pressures are."

Legg agreed, adding that it is crucial for Alberta to prepare for its future by addressing areas that are already under pressure due to the rapid growth in the province.

He said, "The 'Alberta is Calling' message is clearly successful, which is great for growth for the province and for the people bringing their skills, talents, and entrepreneurship here."

"We just need to ensure that we are not becoming victims of our success and that we tackle some of the challenges that are already putting pressure on our quality of life."