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Interest rates can remain high for a long time in Canada...

Interest rates can remain high for a long time in Canada...

By Omayma othmani

Published: November 13, 2023

Canada's Deputy Governor of the Bank, Carolyn Rogers, warned that interest rates in the country may not return to the low levels people were accustomed to before the COVID-19 pandemic.

Rogers said in a speech delivered on Thursday: "We may tend to think that the low interest rates we used to have will eventually return one day, but there is reason to believe that this may not be the case."

As in her speech, the Deputy Governor pointed out that structural changes in the global economy, such as the shift from saving to spending through the retirement of the baby boom generation, could lead to higher interest rates.

She added that rising public debt levels and geopolitical risks, such as the war between Israel and Gaza, may also lead to higher interest rates.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada has strongly increased the benchmark interest rate over the past year and a half, raising it from 0.25% to 5%, its highest level since 2001.

These increases aim to curb inflation after the rapid rise in prices due to the pandemic and the economic measures taken to address it.

However, economists say that interest rates may not return to their low pre-pandemic levels as the global economy undergoes structural changes.

Ottawa will present its fall economic statement on November 21, a minimum wage of $25.05 per hour is needed to live in Toronto, inflation is declining in Canada but food prices continue to rise, and the Bank of Canada raises the interest rate again as a reference.

Canadians are already feeling the impact of high interest rates, as more people are renewing their high-interest mortgages and facing higher borrowing costs.

Carolyn Rogers also noted that the world has already begun to adapt to the reality of living with higher interest rates, leaving little maneuvering space for the global financial system if it has to face a shock.

According to the Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada, adapting to long-term high interest rates will be a major change for everyone, from governments to businesses to households.

Carolyn Rogers also explained that early and gradual adaptation reduces the risk of having to take sudden or even destabilizing actions later.

She added that data shows Canadians are adapting to high interest rates by reducing their spending and credit demands.

Businesses are also feeling the pressure from rising interest rates: demand for their goods and services is slowing, while the costs of servicing their debts are increasing.

Rogers also warned that more adjustments will come with the impact of previous interest rate hikes on the economy.

The effects of interest rate increases are still spreading through the economy. She explained that we will need to closely monitor credit stress indicators and survey data to see how businesses and households are adapting.

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