Internal documents revealed that federal public service employees warned the government two years ago that large increases in immigration could affect the affordability of housing and services.

The documents obtained by the Canadian press through an access to information request showed that Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada analyzed the potential impacts of immigration on the economy, housing, and services as it prepared its immigration targets for the period 2023-2025.

The Deputy Minister, among others, was warned in 2022 that housing construction had not kept pace with population growth.

In Canada, population growth has exceeded the growth in available housing units, as stated in one of the slides.

As the federal authority responsible for managing immigration, policymakers at IRCC must understand the imbalance between population growth and housing supply, and how permanent and temporary immigration affect population growth.

Immigration also represents almost all population growth in Canada, given the country's aging demographic composition.

The federal government ultimately decided to increase the number of permanent residents Canada welcomes each year to 500,000 by 2025, a decision that attracted significant attention and scrutiny. This means that in 2025, Canada will welcome nearly double the number of permanent residents compared to 2015.

The document also revealed that federal public servants were well aware of the pressures that high population growth might place on housing and services.

Public servants warned that rapid increases place pressure on healthcare and affordable housing. Settlement and resettlement service providers expressed short-term pressures due to labor market conditions, high levels, and Afghanistan and Ukraine initiatives.

Demand exceeds supply...

Housing affordability has now become a political responsibility for the Liberal government. The Conservative Party gained significant momentum over the past year by focusing on affordability issues, while notably avoiding the issue of immigration. These pressures have forced the Liberal government to refocus its efforts on housing policy and start addressing the sharp rise in the number of international students with new rules.

Recent data showed that Canada's population growth rate continues to set record numbers as the country also brings in a historic number of temporary residents, largely through international student and temporary foreign worker programs.

The country's population grew by more than 430,000 in the third quarter of 2023, representing the fastest population growth rate for any quarter since 1957.

Experts from Bay Street to academic institutions warned that strong population growth in Canada is eroding housing affordability as demand outpaces supply.

Increasing concern...

The Bank of Canada provided similar analysis, with Deputy Governor Tony Gravelle giving a speech in December warning that strong population growth is driving rents and home prices higher.

Public opinion polls also showed that Canadians are increasingly concerned about the pressure immigration places on services, infrastructure, and housing, leading to declining support for higher immigration rates.

The Liberal government defended its immigration policy decisions, arguing that immigrants help achieve economic prosperity and improve the country's demographic composition as the population ages.

Also, amid increasing scrutiny of the Liberal government's immigration policy, Immigration Minister Marc Miller set the annual target at 500,000 permanent residents for 2026.

Documents from 2022 indicated that Canada's immigration targets exceeded the recommendations of some experts, including the Century Initiative, an organization advocating to increase the country's population to 100 million by the end of the century.