Arab Canada News
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Published: April 12, 2023
The monetary policy report issued by the Bank of Canada today, Wednesday, covered the following points:
The Bank of Canada decided to keep the interest rate unchanged at 4.50%.
Global inflation is declining, but core inflation in major economies remains strong and persistent.
Central banks continue to see the need to maintain a restrictive monetary policy to achieve their inflation targets.
This restrictive monetary policy, and to a lesser extent, pressures in the banking sector are expected to constrain global growth through 2023 and the first half of 2024.
Growth is then expected to rise in 2025 as the effects of policy tightening fade.
In Canada, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to fall quickly to around 3% by mid-2023 and then decline gradually, reaching the 2% target by the end of 2024.
Goods price inflation is falling quickly, reflecting lower energy prices, improved global supply chains, and the effects of restrictive monetary policy on interest-sensitive sectors.
Inflation is then expected to complete the journey back to the 2% target gradually as services price inflation responds more slowly to the effects of restrictive monetary policy.
Demand in Canada still exceeds supply, and the labor market remains tight.
Although the slowing economy and increased labor supply help ease some of this tightness, the labor market remains above the sustainable maximum employment.
Economic growth is expected to slow over the remainder of this year, with the economy moving into excess supply in the second half, then gradually recovering through 2024.
Strong population growth supports aggregate consumption and employment growth.
Household spending is restrained due to the higher interest rates set by the Bank of Canada.
At current interest rates, the share of income spent on interest payments will continue to rise as homeowners refinance their mortgages.
The Bank of Canada also expects growth in business investment and exports to decline, reflecting higher borrowing costs and weaker foreign demand.
With slow growth in Canada over the next several quarters, the Bank of Canada expects near-term inflation expectations to decline, services price inflation and wage growth to moderate, and business pricing behavior to normalize.
As these developments occur, domestic price pressures will ease further, gradually returning inflation to the 2% target.
On an annual average basis, the Bank of Canada expects GDP growth in Canada to be 1.4% this year and 1.3% in 2024.
As the economy adjusts to higher interest rates and inflation returns to the 2% target, the Bank of Canada expects GDP growth in 2025 to be close to 2.5%.
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