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The aviation and pilots crisis in the face of supply and demand

The aviation and pilots crisis in the face of supply and demand

By عبد السلام

Published: May 4, 2022

The demand for pilots in the United States has returned. However, airlines cannot find enough of them, so foreign pilots are rushing to fill the empty cockpits.

Immigration lawyers in the United States have reported an increase in inquiries and visa applications from pilots residing in countries still recovering from the pandemic.

This may bring some relief to an industry struggling to rebuild its capacity after a two-year downturn, but this trend is causing backlash from local unions.

It also reflects an uneven global recovery from COVID-19. Coronavirus infections are still rising in many countries despite the easing of restrictions on the spread of the pandemic in some places. While the increased demand for travel is expected to help major U.S. airlines surpass their pre-pandemic revenues.

Anna Barbara Schaffert, a lawyer at AG Immigration Group based in California, said, "While the United States is suffering from a significant shortage, pilots in the rest of the world are unemployed."

She has received more than 8,000 consultation requests in recent months and is reviewing more than 2,000 resumes from pilots seeking to immigrate to the United States, an increase of more than 90% compared to before COVID-19.

According to United Airlines UAL.O, pilots are expected to remain in short supply for years. United Airlines said that while the United States can produce only 7,000 pilots at most annually, airlines need 13,000 pilots this year and even more next year.

Limited training capacity, among other things, continues to be an obstacle to pilot production. Staff problems have plagued operations in recent weeks at airlines such as Alaska Air Group Inc ALK.N and JetBlue Airways Corp JBLU.O, leading to mass flight cancellations.

To prevent further disruption, airlines have cut summer schedules. The shortage is more severe at regional airlines, which face a high attrition rate due to strong recruitment by national carriers with higher wages.

American Airlines Group AAL.O told investors last month that the rate of pilot attrition at regional airlines exceeds the hiring rate.

Carmen Arce, a lawyer at Arce Immigration Law based in Florida, said this is attracting the interest of pilots in Canada, Europe, Africa, and Asia, where air traffic is still recovering.

Arce and Jean-Francois Harvey, the global managing partner at Harvey Law Group, also said they are receiving inquiries from pilots in Russia, where airlines have been severely affected by Western sanctions.

Three Canadian pilots said they are considering moving to the United States due to Canada’s previous strict coronavirus restrictions, which grounded aircraft earlier in the pandemic and forced some pilots to look for work as drivers for Uber Technologies Inc UBER.N.

Many foreign pilots have hesitated to apply because immigration in the United States can take up to 26 months and cost up to $20,000, with no guarantee of success.

A Montreal-based pilot told TRZ.TO Air Transat, a subsidiary of Transat AT Inc: "It feels like you want to go to Colorado for the gold (in the 19th century), but you were stopped in Michigan." "If the U.S. green card process changes, there will be more pilots leaving (Canada)."

However, Schaffert said the widening supply and demand gap has created an "unprecedented" opportunity for experienced foreign pilots.

First, they must convince U.S. immigration officials that permanent residency would be in the country’s interest. Under the so-called national interest waiver, non-U.S. citizens are allowed to apply for permanent residency without a job offer, making immigration easier.

Schaffert said more than 90% of the applications submitted by her company for experienced pilots have been approved. The U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) has not provided data on applications submitted by pilots.

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