The search is ongoing for the next leader of the Canadian Armed Forces, and it has been a long time since a woman became Chief of Defence Staff, observers say.

Canada has had 21 full-time chiefs of defence since 1964, all men. The current top commander, General Wayne Eyre, is scheduled to retire this summer.

The military has long faced what a damning external report prepared by former Supreme Court Justice Louise Arbour described as a toxic culture of sexual misconduct.

Meanwhile, it is dealing with what Defense Minister Bill Blair this week described as a "death spiral" of recruitment.

Veteran Sharp Doppler said the forces need "a woman or an openly gay person" as their next leader if real change is to happen.

Doppler said, "We have been doing this dance with men at the helm for far too long." "Look where we are."

Until 1992, Canada’s official military policy required the purge of gays from its ranks.

Throughout the subsequent "LGBT purge," as it is known, military personnel with LGBTQ+ identities suffered persecution and discrimination even after that policy changed.

Doppler was forced to come out in 1997.

Canada paid millions in compensation to those targeted, and the Prime Minister officially apologized for the purge in 2017.

But the military’s record of failing to welcome people with diverse identities remains. Women still make up only 16% of the armed forces, despite a goal to increase this to 25% over the next two years.

Retired General Jay Thebault, a former vice president, said, "It’s time for us to have a woman Chief of Defence Staff, whether in this cycle or the next."

Thebault, who is also chair of the Defence Associations’ Institute conference, said it has been nearly 35 years since women were first allowed to serve in combat roles — roughly the time it takes to rise to senior ranks.

Thebault said, "It would be disappointing at this point if we did not develop a good pool of senior female officers who could become Chiefs of Defence Staff."

"The good news is that we (do)."

As of May 2023, there were 12 women with the rank of general and flag officer — making up about one in five senior officers.

Many were promoted to their current roles in the wake of the 2021 crisis in which a number of senior male leaders were accused of sexual misconduct.

General Frances Allen became the first woman to serve as Deputy Chief of Defence Staff when she was appointed in 2021.

She took the position after the scandal reached its peak: Admiral Art McDonald was head of the Department of Defense for only a few weeks when the military police began investigating allegations of sexual misconduct against him.

Eyre was quickly appointed to replace him, initially as interim chief and later permanently.

General Jenny Carignan now leads the army reform efforts as head of the Behaviour and Culture Change section, an office created in response to the scandal.

General Lise Bourgon serves as acting commander of the Army Personnel Command, a position she took after two of her predecessors in the same post were dismissed within weeks, both due to allegations of sexual misconduct.

When the government last conducted an open search for defence minister in 2020, some experts said both Allen and Christine Whitecross, another team viewed as part of a divide, were seen as lacking leadership experience.

Thebault said "operational credentials" are essential to ensure the leader has credibility with the forces and allies.

He added that this time, the military is seen as "in deep trouble," as it grapples with a combination of severe personnel shortages and outdated equipment, meaning it is not meeting its operational readiness goals."

Plans to cut nearly a billion dollars annually from the defense ministry’s spending also worry senior leaders.

Steve Saidman, director of the Canadian Defence and Security Network, said promoting one of the women responsible for culture change or staff would send a strong signal from a liberal government that likes to call itself feminist.

The Governor General appoints defence leaders on the advice of the federal cabinet.

When asked about the search for a new leader in a recent interview, Blair said that "continuing General Eyre’s leadership" is what is needed.

Blair said, "I believe diversity can make the organization stronger and more capable, but one of the responsibilities of leadership is to ensure — it’s my responsibility too — to make sure the work environment is supportive, respectful, effective, and works for everyone."

Saidman noted that Blair’s appointment was surprising.

He replaced Anita Anand, who pledged to make cultural reform a top priority when she became the second woman — and the first woman of color — to hold the position in 2021.

Saidman said the appointment of Blair to this role sent "mixed messages" about how the government views the file, "it wasn’t just a white man."

He added that Blair was "a white man who was a police officer" and someone accused of "not reading his materials" when he was in his last ministerial post.

"He was a man whose star was waning."

Meghan McKenzie, a researcher at Simon Fraser University, warned that simply appointing a woman to the top post would not be enough.

She said, "Sometimes, women or underrepresented individuals who are placed in these positions of power are set up to fail if there’s an expectation they can fix the problem just by being different people, and there is no institutional support to see them."

She also expressed concern about the loss of some hope and momentum for change that resulted from the Arbour report.

She added, "I think the Canadian public and members of the Canadian Armed Forces were hoping this would be a turning point."

Doppler’s assessment was more blunt: "I am more confident that the status quo will continue."