Voters in two electoral districts in Ontario head to the polls for a pair of cold elections on Thursday, but most eyes will be on the city of Toronto, where the tight race comes with high stakes for both Premier Doug Ford and New Democratic leader Marit Stiles.

Southwest Ontario has been held since 2011 by Monte McNaughton, who has served in the Progressive Conservative opposition and has held a cabinet position in Premier Doug Ford's government, and it is widely expected to remain in Conservative hands.

But it seems to be a different story in Milton, west of Mississauga, which has been vacant since Parm Gill resigned in February to join the federal Conservatives. Both the Progressive Conservatives and the Liberals have recently raced for this seat, and polls from observers indicate that both parties enjoy equal popularity in this area.

Andrew Brander, vice president at CrestView Strategy, which managed the three successful election campaigns for the Conservatives, said, "I think it will be exciting to have a very close election," adding, "It is actually an important test for both leaders."

The Ford government has paid considerable attention to Milton during and leading up to its election, with announcements about Go Transit service and Highway 413, and it has had several ministers and other assembly members there.

While a loss for the Conservatives in Milton will not affect Ford's majority, the party has already lost a seat in the recent by-election that was held by another cabinet minister and does not want a repeat. Brander also noted that Gill's departure from cabinet to seek a federal opposition nomination is indeed a blow to the government.

He added, "Losing that would be a very embarrassing election for the current premier."

For the Liberals, this election marks a true test for Bonnie Crombie, who was crowned leader in December, and the former mayor of Mississauga has decided to run for the Milton seat herself, with the party instead choosing Galen Naidoo Harris.

Naidoo Harris, son of Indira Naidoo Harris, who represented the area for the Liberals during Kathleen Wynne's time, has worked in the federal electoral office for the Liberal MP for Milton.

He stated that he does not believe the Conservative attack ads against Crombie have penetrated the riding and believes residents will see through Ford's recent announcements.

Naidoo Harris said, "It's nice to see them finally caring about my community, but I wish it had happened much earlier."

"And I think they still have a long way to go to acknowledge what matters to people in Milton."

One local issue that Naidoo Harris and other opposition parties are using to highlight problems with the Ford government is the battle against the proposed quarry. Ford promised four years ago to cancel it but has not followed through, although he says he will sit down with the community after the environmental assessment is complete.

George Minakakis, head of Milton Works, a group fighting the quarry, believes the issue could affect voters.

Adding, "The way I see it and the way they do too, do you have promises for affordability and more housing, and what residents are essentially saying... can't something small like this be resolved?"

Meanwhile, the Progressive Conservative candidate has liberal roots. Zhi Hamid, a three-time Milton councillor the Conservatives could not interview, donated to the Liberals in 2022 and unsuccessfully sought a federal Liberal nomination in 2015.

Straushan is the NDP candidate and Kyle Houghton is running for the Greens.

Lambton Kent has been a Progressive Conservative stronghold since 2011 until McNaughton, a rising star in Ford's government, resigned last October to take a job in the private sector.

But Liberal candidate Kathy Burgardt Jason said she has seen some cracks in the PC's armor.

She said, "There is frustration with Premier Ford and those who don’t want to be associated with the questionable ethics and the RCMP investigation into Swap Greenbelt Land."

Burgardt Jason hopes her municipal political experience can break through.

The mayor of Lucan Biddulph over the past decade said the main concerns he hears while door-knocking are the "big three": affordability, healthcare, and education.

There are also looming concerns about land. Burgardt Jason said agriculture is the major economic driver in all three ridings that make up the election stronghold.

Adding, "Land use planning and the loss of farmland is another hot-button topic."

She said the proposed controversial expansion of the landfill in Dresden is also a contentious issue, as Burgardt asserted that her argument is simple.

Stating, "Now is a great time for change because you’re not changing the government. It allows people to think about their representation a little differently. They can put someone they know and trust."

Katherine Scheiler is running for the NDP while Andrina Tielgner is the Green candidate.