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Published: March 7, 2024
Fewer Canadians, compared to almost any time since the party elected Justin Trudeau as leader, are considering voting for the federal Liberals, according to the latest poll conducted by Nanos Research.
The polling firm has tracked "reachable voters," meaning the number of Canadians who might consider voting Liberal, every week since before the party elected Trudeau as leader in 2015.
While between 50 to 60 percent of respondents said they would consider voting Liberal when surveyed in the months leading up to the 2015 federal election—when the Conservative Party led by former Prime Minister Stephen Harper was still in power—only 36.2 percent are currently considering voting for Trudeau's Liberals.
This number is just slightly higher than the lowest level recorded for Trudeau's Liberals in November, when 34.6 percent of participants said they would consider voting for the party.
Nick Nanos, the official pollster for CTV and founder of Nanos Research, said in an interview with Trend Line on CTV News: "This means the majority of Canadians do not have them on the radar as a voting option."
At the peak of the party's popularity among reachable voters, 66 percent of participants in Nanos's August 2016 poll said they would consider voting Liberal.
Nanos told Trend Line host Michael Stittle that the recent numbers indicate further erosion of an already "narrow and firm" subgroup of voters whom the Liberals still appeal to.
Moreover, Nanos's recent poll tracking showed the Conservatives leading the Liberals by 20 points.
In other words, if an election were held today, Pierre Poilievre's Conservative Party would receive 43 percent of the vote, the Liberals 23 percent, the NDP 21 percent, the Bloc 6 percent, and the Greens about 4 percent.
Nanos said, "I think the good news for the Liberals is that the election is not today, because if the election were today, it would be a political blow, for all intents and purposes," adding that his latest poll tracking shows there is a "huge appetite for change" among voters.
As for the type of change Canadian voters are seeking, it may come down to the popularity of the individual leading the ship. Nanos said the Liberals have "tried everything" to win back voters.
He added, "They have thrown the kitchen sink... kitchen tables, kitchen cabinets, and the kitchen." "They have thrown everything at Pierre Poilievre (and) the Conservatives, and yet the Conservatives still hold a significant advantage."
Meanwhile, only 30 percent of Canadians recently surveyed by Nanos feel that Trudeau has the qualities of a good political leader, down from over 70 percent in 2015 and 2016.
Compounding the Liberals' woes, 37 percent of Nanos's respondents, as of the week ending March 1, listed Poilievre as their preferred prime minister, compared to 19 percent who chose Trudeau.
With the next federal election in Canada scheduled to take place by October 2025 at the latest, there is still some time for the Liberals to turn things around, and Nanos said this year's federal budget could be a key opportunity for the Liberals to win back voters.
Nanos said, "The big question is: Will it be big spending or a restrained budget? And I think that will be the challenging part for the Liberals." "Many Canadians are tightening their belts because they are worried about paying bills, and maybe that is also what they expect from the government."
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