As the grim one-year anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine approaches, a new poll indicates that Canadian engagement in the conflict is waning and that support for Ukraine is weakening—especially among conservatives.

A poll published by the Angus Reid Institute on Tuesday morning showed that one quarter of Canadians believe Canada is providing "too much support" to Ukraine in its battle, compared to 13 percent who said the same in May 2022.

According to the poll, conservative supporters are the driving force behind this result.

The percentage of Canadians who voted for the Conservative Party in the last election and who now say Canada is doing too much to help Ukraine has more than doubled—from 19 percent in May 2022 to 43 percent now—according to the findings of the opinion research group.

Angus Reid Institute head Shachi Kurl said, "It's... a tremendous leap." "This is likely to be a tough political knot for Pierre Poilievre."

Kurl noted that sorting out the underlying reasons behind this shift is largely speculative at this stage.

She said that on one hand, there is a long-standing tradition of military support among conservative voters, and added that this stance may be in tension with conservatives’ support for small government and tax cuts.

She added, "I don’t want to overstate this... but what’s thriving, and what has somewhat grown from a weed into a somewhat healthy sapling here, is this almost Trump-like, 'Canada First' mentality."

"This conservative mindset does not represent the majority of the Conservative Party base in the country, or the base as a whole. It is a minority, but a passionate, outspoken, and growing minority."

The poll indicates that the belief that Canada is giving Ukraine too much is also increasing among New Democratic and Liberal voters. The proportion of voters who think Canada is doing too much for Ukraine rose from 5 to 10 percent among 2021 Liberal supporters, and from 5 to 12 percent among 2021 New Democratic Party supporters.

Since early 2022, the federal government has allocated more than $2.4 billion in military aid and more than $352 million in humanitarian aid to Ukraine.

Emotional debate over trade with Ukraine

The poll came one day after another emotional discussion in the House of Commons over a bill to implement an update to the free trade agreement between Canada and Ukraine.

Liberals accused Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre and his party of abandoning Ukraine when Conservative MPs voted against the bill in November. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau attributed the opposition to "MAG A-influenced American thinking."

Poilievre, whose party has maintained a significant lead in opinion polls over Trudeau’s Liberals for several months, said his party still supports Ukraine and that his objection is to the mention of "carbon pricing" in the legislation.

Poilievre said in November: "I really think this shows how obsessed Trudeau is with the carbon tax, and although the knife is in the Ukrainians' throats, he will use it to impose his own carbon tax ideology on those poor people."

The trade agreement does not impose any obligation on the Ukrainian government to implement a carbon tax.

Last week, Poilievre called on the Liberal government to donate tens of thousands of surplus ground-to-air missiles scheduled for disposal to Ukraine.

The Angus Reid poll indicates that Canadians, by a three-to-one margin, believe the Conservative vote against the Canada-Ukraine free trade agreement will undermine Canada’s global reputation, while the poll says half of likely Conservative voters think there will be no impact at all.

Kurl said elections decided on foreign policy issues are rare in Canada, but for the first time in months, Poilievre’s opponents have something to talk about.

She continued, "He spent a little time defending, which has allowed him to remain extremely disciplined regarding the message and very focused regarding the ongoing attacks on the government, and I’m not saying those attacks in some cases didn’t work," "were unconvincing, or that they weren’t a series of specific targets on the part of this government." "But, you know, for the first time maybe we’re seeing something putting Poilievre on the defensive..."

Canadian interest wanes

The Angus Reid Institute poll indicates that the number of Canadians closely following news on the conflict has dropped from 66 percent in May 2022 to 45 percent now.

Kurl said, "Overall, Canadians want to get out of this conflict."

"And you can see those less engaged are also more likely to say, you know, we are helping too much, we have met our obligations."

The poll indicates Canadians remain divided on the role Canada should play in the next war.

One-third of respondents agreed that Canada should support Ukraine "for as long as it takes," while one in ten thinks support should continue for just one more year."

Another 30% are unsure, while 20% say they believe the war should end now with peace negotiations initiated by Ukraine.

Only five percent of participants want Canada to end its support completely.

The Angus Reid Institute conducted the online poll from January 29 to 31, 2024, using a random sample of 1,617 Canadian adults members of the Angus Reid Forum.

For comparison purposes, a probability sample of this size carries a margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points, 19 times out of 20.