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Published: July 4, 2024
A new opinion poll has shown that the majority of Canadians believe Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will remain in his position to lead his party in the upcoming elections, despite his approval ratings remaining extremely low.
Questions about Trudeau's future have arisen for over a year, as his Liberal party lags significantly behind the Conservatives. These questions intensified last week after the Liberals lost their stronghold to the Conservatives in the by-election that took place in Toronto on June 24.
An opinion poll conducted by Leger online, which included 1,521 people between June 28 and 30, showed that two-thirds of respondents believe Trudeau will remain as party leader until the next election. According to Canada's fixed-date election law, this must happen by the fall of 2025.
One in three respondents to the poll said they believe Trudeau will resign before the end of this year, with many of them thinking it will happen by Labor Day.
For his part, Trudeau said on Wednesday that he is receiving calls from party members, but he stated that he will lead the Liberals in the next election.
The poll indicates widespread dissatisfaction with Trudeau, as only one in four respondents approved of his performance as Prime Minister, compared to nearly two in three who said they disapprove of it.
These figures are almost identical to those obtained from a Leger poll in November 2023.
The ratings also come after a tense parliamentary session during which the Liberals fended off ongoing accusations from the Conservatives that the government is far removed from Canadians and has made everything worse after nine years in power.
Trudeau's disapproval rates are at their highest in the Prairie region, while Quebec shows the highest level of support for the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister's popularity is almost non-existent among those identified as Conservative voters, with only eight percent approving of his performance.
Three out of four Liberal voters said they approve of Trudeau, compared to 32 percent of New Democratic voters who said the same.
The poll indicates that a large majority - 82 percent - of Conservative and New Democratic voters want Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre and New Democratic leader Jagmeet Singh to be on the ballot in the next election. But only 63% of Liberal voters want Trudeau to remain in his position.
Poilievre and the Conservatives have maintained a double-digit lead over Trudeau and the Liberals for over a year. Another Leger poll published in late June showed a slight narrowing of that lead, but the Conservatives remained 14 points ahead of the Liberals.
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