Global wheat prices will rise by 34 percent during the 2022/2023 season if Ukraine's export capacities shrink to zero and Russian wheat exports drop by 50 percent, according to one of the scenarios outlined by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development in a study it recently published titled "The Impact of the Russian Aggression on Ukraine on Agricultural Markets and Its Consequences".

The organization explained, "Given the current state of uncertainty, it is difficult to predict the consequences that will result from the Russian war in Ukraine on agricultural markets in the future." It added, "The outcomes remain contingent on the developments in Ukrainian supplies and the restrictions imposed by Russia on its exports."

The organization stated that if Ukrainian exports drop to zero, the global wheat price increase is expected to reach 19 percent, and if Russian exports decrease by 50 percent from their usual level, wheat prices will witness a 34 percent rise compared to the pre-Russian war situation.

Under this scenario, combined wheat exports from Russia and Ukraine decrease by 36 million tons, while other countries are pushed to raise their exports by 16 million tons through increased production.
According to the same source’s analysis, "Additional increases in wheat and other agricultural product prices would harm global food security and could increase the number of people suffering from malnutrition, which emerged recently due to the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic."

The organization clarified that since February 2022, Ukraine's capacity to harvest and export crops has weakened due to the war. Ukraine is the largest producer of sunflower seeds in the world and a major source of wheat, barley, vegetable oil, and corn. No significant disruption in Russia's plant production is expected, but there are doubts regarding its export capabilities even though food products and fertilizers have not been affected by international sanctions.