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Dow Jones drops 760 points and Japanese stocks record their worst collapse since 1987 amid concerns about the U.S. economy.

Dow Jones drops 760 points and Japanese stocks record their worst collapse since 1987 amid concerns about the U.S. economy.

By Mounira Magdy

Published: August 5, 2024

Almost all stocks on Wall Street fell today, Monday, as fears of a slowing U.S. economy intensified, leading to another wave of selling in financial markets worldwide.

The S&P 500 index dropped by 2.1 percent in midday trading. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was swinging down by 763 points, or 1.9 percent, as of 12:20 PM Eastern time, and the Nasdaq Composite fell by 2.4 percent.

These declines are the latest in a global sell-off that began last week. The Nikkei 225 index in Japan helped start Monday off with a drop of 12.4 percent in its worst day since the Black Monday crash of 1987.

This was the first opportunity for traders in Tokyo to react to Friday's report that showed U.S. employers slowed hiring last month more than economists had expected. This was the latest piece of data about the U.S. economy to come in weaker than expected, and all of this raised concerns that the Federal Reserve may have tightened the brakes on the U.S. economy too much for too long with high interest rates in hopes of choking off inflation.

Professional investors warned that some technical factors could amplify the move in the markets, but the losses were still shocking. South Korea's KOSPI index plummeted by 8.8 percent, stock markets across Europe fell by more than 2 percent, and Bitcoin dipped below $55,000 from more than $61,000 on Friday.

Even gold, which has a reputation for providing safety during turbulent times, declined by one percent.

This is partly because traders began to question whether the damage was severe enough for the Federal Reserve to be forced to cut interest rates in an emergency meeting before its next scheduled decision on September 18.

The yield on the two-year Treasury note, which closely follows Federal Reserve expectations, briefly fell below 3.70 percent during the morning from 3.88 percent late Friday and from 5 percent in April. It then recovered later and retreated to 3.93 percent.

Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management, said, "The Fed could ride in on a white horse to save the day with a big rate cut, but the case for cutting rates between meetings seems weak. These cuts are typically reserved for emergencies, like COVID, and a 4.3 percent unemployment rate doesn’t really seem like an emergency."

The U.S. economy is still growing, and a recession is far from certain. The Federal Reserve has been clear about the tightrope it began walking when it started raising interest rates sharply in March 2022: excessive aggression could choke off the economy, but excessive leniency could give inflation more oxygen and hurt everyone.

Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle sees a higher chance of a recession within the next 12 months after Friday's jobs report. But he still sees only a 25 percent probability, up from 15 percent, partly "because the data looks generally good" and he doesn’t "see major financial imbalances."

Some of the recent declines seen on Wall Street may just be air coming out of a stock market that has logged dozens of all-time highs this year, partly due to the frenzy around artificial intelligence technology and hopes for future interest rate cuts. Critics have been saying for a while that the stock market looked expensive after prices rose faster than corporate profits.

According to J.J. Kinahan, CEO of IG North America, "Markets tend to move up as if they’re climbing stairs, and drop as if they’re falling out of a window." He attributes much of the recent anxiety to the euphoria around AI and "the market that got ahead of itself."

Professional investors also pointed to the Bank of Japan's move last week to raise its key interest rate from near zero. Such a move helps bolster the value of the yen, but it may also force traders to rush out of positions where they borrowed money at nearly no cost in Japan and invested it elsewhere around the world.

U.S. stocks trimmed their losses on Monday after a report showed that growth in U.S. services companies was a bit stronger than expected. The growth was driven by companies in the arts, entertainment, and recreation, along with accommodations and food services, according to the Institute for Supply Management. Treasury yields also trimmed their declines after the better-than-expected data.

However, shares of companies whose profits are closely tied to a strong economy suffered sharp losses due to concerns about the slowdown. Small companies in the Russell 2000 index fell by 2.8 percent, extinguishing what had been a recovery for them and other market sectors affected.

Compounding the problem for Wall Street, shares of major tech companies also fell as the most popular trade in the market for most of this year continued to unravel. Apple, Nvidia, and a few other big tech stocks known as the "magnificent seven" had driven the S&P 500 index to record levels this year, even as rising interest rates weighed heavily on much of the rest of the stock market.

But the momentum of the big tech companies shifted last month amid fears that investors had pushed their prices to overly high levels and that the outlook for future growth had become too difficult. A spate of disappointing earnings reports beginning with updates from Tesla and Alphabet added to the pessimism and accelerated the declines.

Apple shares fell by 3.7 percent on Monday after Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway revealed it had reduced its stake in the iPhone maker.

Nvidia, the chip company that has become the darling of artificial intelligence wealth on Wall Street, fell even more, by 6 percent. Analysts lowered their profit expectations over the weekend for the company after a report from The Information indicated that Nvidia's new AI chip was delayed. The recent selloff has shrunk Nvidia's gains for the year to around 104% from 170% in mid-June.

Since the magnificent seven are the largest in the market by market capitalization, moves in their stocks carry a much heavier weight on the S&P 500 index and other benchmarks.

Concerns outside of corporate earnings, interest rates, and the economy are also weighing on the market. The war between Israel and Hamas could escalate, which, along with the human toll, may provoke sharp fluctuations in oil prices. This raises broader concerns about potential flashpoints around the world, while the upcoming U.S. elections may further complicate matters.

Wall Street has been worried about how policies coming out in November might affect the markets, but volatile stock prices could impact the elections themselves.

The threat of a recession is likely to put U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris in a defensive position. But slower growth could also help reduce inflation and force former U.S. President Donald Trump to shift from his current focus on rising prices to identifying ways to revive the economy.

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