One industry analyst warns that the recent rise in gas costs in the Greater Toronto Area may be just the "beginning" of price increases at the pumps this spring.

Dan MacTeague, head of "Canadians for Affordable Energy," said drivers in Southern Ontario experienced a 12-cent increase per liter in gas prices just last week. According to his website, the average gas price in the Greater Toronto Area is currently around $1.59 per liter.

MacTeague told CP24 on Monday: "It seems we are at the start of what could be a 20-cent increase (per liter) from now until the weekend of May 24 or July 1."

He added that while there are "many factors" determining the gas price, there are three things that will guarantee cost increases in the coming months.

He continued: "If oil prices rise by about seven or eight dollars per barrel, that would be good for about a 10-cent per liter increase."

"We know that in mid-April we will have the switch to the summer gasoline blend from the winter gasoline blend. Producing this specific blend costs refineries more.

He added that the increase in the federal carbon tax will also cause gas prices to rise.

He said, "All these factors mean that another 20 cents (per liter) is certain but it could be much higher."

"Last summer, we did not see hurricane activity on the US Gulf Coast. We did not see many problems or unusual refinery factors that would negatively affect supply. This issue is really about supply and demand. Supply is not meeting the increasing demand, especially in the United States."