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Published: August 12, 2024
Mike McGlone, the senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, expects the price of an ounce of gold to rise to $3000 soon.
The price of an ounce today, Monday, is approximately $2450.
McGlone added, "I think it's just a matter of time before gold reaches $3000 an ounce," explaining that gold's historical performance during times of economic instability, along with its role as a hedge against currency devaluation, positions it as a strong safe-haven asset.
He stated that U.S. Treasuries offer a safe haven amid market uncertainty. Despite concerns about deficit spending, McGlone claims that Treasuries remain a vital part of a safe investment strategy.
He said, "U.S. Treasuries are still the right place to be, despite what people are saying about deficit spending."
This sentiment is echoed by the persistently high yields on U.S. Treasuries compared to other major economies, reflecting their relative stability, according to "Investing."
McGlone explained the similarities between the current global economic situation and the financial crisis of 2008, warning that the current scenario could be worse.
McGlone said, "First and foremost, look at stock market volatility, the big volatility index, the 52-week moving average minus the treasury bill rate, is as low as it was in 2007."
He noted that the market capitalization ratio of the U.S. stock market to GDP is now about double the level it was before the crisis, compared to roughly 1.3 times before the financial crisis, indicating a significant risk of increased volatility in the future.
McGlone expressed serious concerns about a potential global recession, emphasizing the critical situation in China: "China is heading towards a very severe recession, possibly a depression. Just look at its bond yields, where the yield on 10-year bonds is at 2.15%, which is much lower than the yield of 3.78%."
He pointed out that the current scenario is different from the 2008 crisis, which was led by the United States, stating, "Now I think it’s a global macroeconomic crisis." This global perspective underscores the wide-ranging economic challenges facing many major economies, contributing to increased market turmoil.
The broader commodity markets also reflect these concerns. For example, prices have been volatile, influenced by supply and demand dynamics. Recently, West Texas Intermediate futures fell below $70 a barrel, reflecting fears about global demand amid slowing economic growth in major economies like China and Germany.
The Bloomberg Commodity Index has also shown significant declines, indicating deflationary pressures across various commodity categories. McGlone noted that "commodities are showing us clear deflation," pointing to the major correction in industrial metals and grains.
In this turbulent environment, McGlone emphasized the importance of shifting investment strategies toward risk-free assets: "In the current environment, reducing the weight of risky assets and increasing the weight of safe assets like long-term U.S. Treasuries is wise."
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