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US dollar indicators between rise and fall and their impact on commodities and stocks …

US dollar indicators between rise and fall and their impact on commodities and stocks …

By م.زهير الشاعر

Published: July 17, 2022

The DXY dollar index, which measures the performance of the dollar against a basket of major currencies, is one of the important indicators that play a role in tracking market movements and the compass that guides their directions. Therefore, traders in the markets pay attention to following the dollar index because of its inverse effect on the movement of stocks and commodities, primarily oil and gold, in addition to its importance in currency trading. Its rise means a decline in stock and commodity markets, and vice versa. Its decline provides room for them to rise. This inverse relationship is not permanent and has some exceptions, but it is generally as we mentioned.

One of the most important factors supporting the rise of the dollar is the increase in interest rates, which are therefore considered an unwelcome enemy among securities and commodities traders. We have seen declines hit the majority of financial markets since the dollar volcano erupted in a way not seen for more than 20 years, as it exceeded the level of 108 at the beginning of this week, a level not visited since October 2002, causing a lot of pain for stock markets. Since the dollar is still promised another series of interest rate hikes this year, according to Jerome Powell, Chairman of the "U.S. Federal Reserve," this means greater recovery and continued rise of the dollar, which negatively reflects on stock and commodity markets. This is regarding the economic influences contributing to the dollar's rise. From a technical perspective, the dollar index is still on an upward trend, likely to break the 110 barrier, with technical targets in the medium term above 125 points.

Statements and forecasts around the world still point to a recession looming on the horizon, which may hit the U.S. economy first, and the rest of the world will not be immune from it despite variations in percentages. But as they say, every rule has exceptions, studies and research that point to this and expect a contraction in the second quarter of the U.S. economy. For example, the World Bank expects a decline in the world's largest economies, such as the United States and China, and other countries.

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