The military coup in Gabon has raised significant concern in the international community, following the coup in Niger, which has led African nations to face a series of military coups. This is particularly true after a group consisting of about 12 army and police members in Gabon announced the annulment of election results, the dissolution of all republican institutions, and the termination of the existing regime, marking a new chapter in the ongoing saga of coups that the resource-rich African continent is witnessing, with potential ramifications for the region and global markets, especially since Gabon is a member of OPEC and one of the leading oil producers in sub-Saharan Africa.

Although it is still too early to assess the results of the current coup attempt and the subsequent scenarios in a country that has largely enjoyed a form of political stability over recent years, preemptive questions arise regarding the potential implications of the security and political instability in Gabon, located in Central Africa (bordered by the Gulf of Guinea to the west, Equatorial Guinea to the northwest, Cameroon to the north, and the Republic of Congo to the east and south) in a region that faces various disturbances and challenges.

Besides the commotion surrounding the impact of the current coup attempt on the internal situation in the country and its African neighborhood, there is a broader debate regarding the extent to which this situation affects global markets, including oil markets, considering that Gabon is among the producing and exporting countries, although its export volume is limited compared to major producing nations. Additionally, there are questions concerning the impact on other markets due to the country’s resources, including timber, uranium, manganese, magnesium, and more.

It is noteworthy that in 2022, Gabon was among nine countries that increased their oil production out of 13 countries in OPEC, with its output rising by 0.015 percent to approximately 197,000 barrels per day compared to the levels of 2021, according to the organization's data.

According to the data in the 2022 annual statistical bulletin, Gabon's proven crude oil reserves amount to two billion barrels.

Economic and Political Impacts

In this context, African affairs expert Major General Mohamed Abdel Wahed stated in special remarks that “this coup has an impact on the entire region, both politically and economically,” pointing to the economic significance of this country, a member of OPEC since 1975 (with a period of suspension from 1995 to 2016). He also noted that it holds reserves estimated at about two billion barrels of oil, as well as its gas production of approximately half a billion cubic meters (with proven natural gas reserves estimated at about 26 billion cubic meters, according to 2021 estimates), in addition to its abundant natural resources and wealth.

Thus, “the existence of disturbances in Gabon could affect energy markets in one way or another, especially since there are significant repercussions faced by the world following the war in Ukraine and Europe’s need to secure its energy resources,” according to Abdel Wahed, who points out that if the situation in Gabon develops further, it will affect the economy, as it is one of the top five producing countries in sub-Saharan Africa and an exporting nation.

The total crude oil exports from Gabon reached about 181,000 barrels per day, while petroleum product exports totaled about 10,000 barrels per day in 2021.

However, he adds: “So far, we cannot predict the developments of events based on the success or failure of the coup.. It is a coup attempt that has not yet shown its features, perhaps this coup will be thwarted or perhaps it will succeed, and within the next few hours many indicators will emerge regarding this matter.. Gabon has not historically experienced coups or military rule, except for one attempt in 1964 to overthrow the first president after independence, which France intervened to suppress by sending commando teams from its military base in Senegal and others from the Republic of Congo.”