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Published: September 3, 2023
Simon Tisdall wrote an article titled "Putin Wages an Eternal War, and the West Can’t Stop Ukraine Now" in the British Guardian newspaper.
The author believes that many prominent Western politicians still do not understand the reality of the Russian war on Ukraine, and are either unable or unwilling to comprehend the existential threat that Vladimir Putin's Russia poses to everyone.
While Western leaders continue to assume that this war, like other conflicts, will eventually end in negotiations, the Kremlin demands nothing less than the complete surrender of Kyiv — which, according to the author, will not happen.
Tisdall points to several factors driving the discussion about peace talks, such as the failure of Ukrainian forces to make significant advances in their counter-offensive, the geographic expansion of the war and fears of nuclear confrontation, rising hunger rates in poorer countries desperate for grain, and general "war fatigue."
The author reviewed statements from former French President Nicolas Sarkozy, who "echoed Russia's demands
and Tisdall wrote: "Nicolas Sarkozy, the former French president who should know better, is the latest to join the ranks of French, German, and Italian politicians from the far-right and far-left who want to kiss Putin and reconcile with him."
The author predicted that pressure would mount in the United States to cut aid to Ukraine and impose a peace settlement, regardless of Joe Biden's re-election in next year's presidential election. If Donald Trump, one of Putin's supporters, wins, he may try to impose a quick deal and stop Kyiv from fighting.
Tisdall noted a contrasting position, expressed by Josep Borrell, the EU's foreign policy chief, after talks involving 40 countries held recently in Saudi Arabia, in which he harshly criticized governments for failing to arm Kyiv early and effectively.
Borrell wrote: "But all this wavering presumes that Putin is willing to talk, which is a highly questionable assumption. With winter returning, in the midst of a stalemate on the battlefield, and with swing elections approaching in Europe and the United States, Putin may believe that time is on his side."
The author pointed out that Russian public opinion may be shifting, not in favor of the war as much as against the idea of defeat, and recent polls have revealed that Ukrainian drone strikes may rally Russians behind the Kremlin.
The author cited the views of political analysts who saw that "the Kremlin has made it clear time and again that Ukraine's complete surrender is the only acceptable basis for a peace agreement."
Tisdall believes that for Putin, the continuation of the ongoing conflict against the West is the broader context and objective of the war. There are other factors that make a meaningful peace process unbelievable, and any ceasefire that freezes the status quo would reward Russian aggression — and most Ukrainians would prefer destruction to that.
The author concluded by stating: "Even if a ceasefire is agreed upon in Ukraine one way or another, Putin is likely to treat it as a tactical pause before his next attack. Western leaders, especially Biden, Emmanuel Macron, Scholz, and Rishi Sunak, must recognize this reality — and finally begin to fight for victory."
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