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Published: August 10, 2022
Ontario MP Pierre Poilievre remains the frontrunner to be the next leader of the Conservative Party, but he lags behind his opponent Jean Charest in support among Canadians as a whole.
A new poll conducted by Leger in collaboration with the Canadian Studies Association showed that 44 percent of Conservative voters believe Poilievre will be the best party leader.
His main competitor, former Quebec Premier Jean Charest, received 17 percent support.
The poll was conducted online between August 5 and August 7 among 1,500 Canadian adults selected from the Leger panel.
No margin of error can be given because online polls are not considered a statistically representative sample.
After the Conservative leadership race, 22 percent of Conservatives said they did not know which of the five candidates would be the best leader, while eight percent said none of them would be.
Among the remaining candidates, Ontario MP Leslyn Lewis received 6 percent support, Ontario MP Scott Aitchison 2 percent, and former Ontario regional politician Roman Baber 1 percent.
This is the first poll conducted by Leger since Brampton Mayor Patrick Brown was disqualified from the race by the leadership organizing committee last month due to allegations that he breached party election rules and possibly violated federal election laws.
In a June poll by Leger, Poilievre also received 44 percent support among Conservatives, Charest got 14 percent support, while Brown had 4 percent.
The August poll raised Charest’s numbers by three points, while Poilievre’s numbers remained the same.
Christian Bourque, Executive Vice President at Leger, said that with votes already cast, all indicators point to a Poilievre win.
But he said the poll also indicates that the candidate preferred by Conservatives may face a tougher road to winning the general election.
The poll indicates that Charest is considered the better choice as Conservative Party leader by 22 percent of all Canadians, while Poilievre is supported by only 16 percent.
One in seven Canadians surveyed said a Poilievre win would make them more enthusiastic about voting Conservative in the upcoming election, with only a small portion saying the same about a Charest win.
However, more than one in four surveyed said a Poilievre win would make them less enthusiastic about voting Conservative, compared to one in five who said that about Charest.
This division is most apparent in the province of Ontario, the most important among Canadian provinces for federal elections, where a Poilievre win as Conservative leader would make 28 percent of those surveyed less enthusiastic about voting Conservative, compared to 16 percent who said a Charest win would not encourage them to vote Conservative.
In Alberta, 24 percent of respondents said they would be more enthusiastic to vote Conservative if Poilievre won,
and 18 percent said they would be less enthusiastic to do so.
If Charest won, 14 percent of respondents said they would be more enthusiastic about voting Conservative, while 27 percent said they would be less enthusiastic to do so.
Bourque said this opens the door to some existential questions for Conservatives, who have already won in Alberta by securing 30 of the province’s 34 seats, while in Ontario, Conservatives hold 37 of 121 seats and need to do better in the most populous province to form government.
Bourque also said Poilievre could help Conservatives win the same seats by larger margins in Alberta, but he would not do much to move the needle on this in Ontario.
Explaining: "With a Charest win, the equation will not be the same."
It is worth noting that the Conservatives are scheduled to announce the leadership winner on September 10.
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