If an election were to be held today, the Conservative Party would win more seats than the Liberals, according to the latest seat projections from Nanos Research. In the last federal election, the Conservatives outperformed the Liberals in the popular vote, but failed to win the most seats, allowing Justin Trudeau to form successive minority governments.

While a federal election is unlikely any time soon, given that the Liberals and the New Democratic Party have a governing deal until 2025, the seat projections show the Conservatives winning 108 seats if an election were held today, compared to 106 seats for the Liberals. Much of this relates to the expected performance of the Conservative Party around the Greater Toronto Area, which Liberals had previously dominated. The projections also show the New Democratic Party winning 41 seats and the Bloc Quebecois 24 seats. Nanos said that some of these suburban areas around Toronto, such as those in Oakville and Burlington, were traditionally considered "very strong" for the Liberals in the last election. But the projections now indicate that these ridings are leaning towards the Conservatives.