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For the eighth consecutive time, the Bank of England raises interest rates at the highest level since 1989.

For the eighth consecutive time, the Bank of England raises interest rates at the highest level since 1989.

By م.زهير الشاعر

Published: November 3, 2022

The summary of the monetary policy issued by the Bank of England today, Thursday, covered the following points:

The Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England makes its decisions to achieve the 2% inflation target, in a way that helps maintain growth and employment.
At its meeting ending on November 3, 2022, the Monetary Policy Committee voted to increase the bank rate by 0.75% to reach 3.00%.
The Monetary Policy Committee within the Bank of England voted by a majority of 7-2 to raise the bank rate by 0.75% to 3%.
One member preferred an increase of 0.5% to 2.75%, and one member preferred an increase of 0.25% to 2.5%, as shown in the monetary policy report accompanying November.
The updated forecasts from the Monetary Policy Committee for activity and inflation are described as very difficult forecasts for the UK economy.
Since the previous forecasts of the Monetary Policy Committee, there have been significant developments in fiscal policy.
Uncertainty about the forecasts for retail energy prices in the UK has decreased somewhat after further government interventions.
For the current November forecasts, consistent with the government announcements on October 17, the Monetary Policy Committee’s working assumption is the continuation of some financial support after the current six-month period of the Energy Price Guarantee (EPG), leading to the creation of a smoothed path for domestic energy prices.
Over the next two years, such support would mechanically limit further increases in the energy component to consumer price inflation significantly and reduce its volatility.
However, in boosting private aggregate demand relative to the August forecasts, the support could increase inflationary pressures in non-energy goods and services.
Other fiscal measures announced up to October 17 also support demand relative to the August forecasts.
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee forecasts do not include any further measures that may be announced in the Autumn Statement scheduled for November 17.
There have been large movements in asset prices within the UK since the August report.
These aspects partially reflect global developments, although UK-specific factors have played a very important role during this period.
The forecasts of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee are conditional on the interest rate path implied by financial markets in the seven working days leading up to October 25.
This path rose to a peak of around 5% in Q3 of next year, before falling back.
Overall, the path is about 2.25% higher over the next three years than it was in the August forecasts.
The elevated market yield curve has led to a sharp rise in new mortgage rates.
Financial conditions have tightened materially, leading to lower activity during the forecast period.
GDP is expected to fall by around 0.75% in the second half of this year, reflecting partly the pressure on real income from higher global energy and tradable goods prices.
The decline in activity towards the end of this year is expected to be less marked than in August.
The labor market remains tight, although there are signs that labour demand has started to weaken.
Consumer price inflation reached 10.1% in September and is expected to rise to around 11% in the fourth quarter of this year, which is lower than was expected in August.
Consumer price inflation for services has increased.
Annual wage growth rose to 6.2% in the three months to August, 0.6% higher than expected in the August report.
GDP is expected to continue contracting throughout 2023 and the first half of 2024, as high energy prices and tighter financial conditions weigh on spending.
Four-quarter GDP growth may be 0.75% by the end of the forecast period.
Ongoing weakness in spending is likely to increase the size of the economic downturn during the first half of next year, including a rise in the unemployment rate.

Read more about the monetary policy summary issued by the Bank of England - November 2022 - Source: https://www.arabictrader.com/ar/news/central-banks/139276

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