"Tara Sower," a Canadian farmer, says that everything has changed and there is no longer stability either in production or in prices.

All her input costs have risen since last year due to inflationary pressures, rising energy costs, and the war in Ukraine. The price of fertilizer today is more than double what it was last year, and the cost of diesel used to operate her farm equipment has also doubled.

But obtaining this above-average crop can be a challenge. Last year, Sower's farm was severely affected by widespread drought that led to crop declines across western Canada, and there are already concerns that this year may be another dry year.

She said, "Most farmers, including us, saw a 30 percent decrease, so we need to be able to achieve really good yields this year to pay for that." "But in our area, we are already terribly dry."

While the cost of everything from seeds to herbicides to tractor tires increased in 2022, crop prices also rose.

"Sower," for example, grows wheat, barley, and canola, all hot commodities right now due to supply pressures caused by the Russia-Ukraine war and the consequences of last year’s drought.

John Driedger, from LeftField Commodity Research based in Manitoba, said: "There are a number of crops that have reached all-time highs." "If you go back two years, the price of canola nearly tripled, wheat is higher than it has been in 20 years, and corn prices have also risen to a record level."

Driedger said crop prices are high enough that any farmer able to produce a normal-sized crop can make a big profit, but in addition to dry conditions in Alberta, many farmers in Manitoba and eastern Saskatchewan have the opposite problem and couldn’t even get to the land due to flooding and excessive moisture.

For those farms lucky enough to harvest a normal or even better crop, it could be a great year.

But there will be many farms that appear unstable. Corny Thiessen, General Manager of ADAMA Canada, a Winnipeg-based company selling crop protection products such as fungicides, herbicides, and insecticides, said, "Some of these inputs have become more expensive and harder to find due to health factors such as COVID and disruptions caused by manufacturing companies and shipping delays."

But he added that the war in Ukraine is also increasing demand for these products. Thiessen said: "The very high crop prices have changed farmers' economics about how much they invest in crop protection." "With prices really high as we see now, it sends a message to farmers that the world really needs your crop, so you have to make it as big as possible."

Thiessen said the 2022 crop will likely be the most expensive crop ever grown in Canada.

Thiessen added, "For the individual farmer, there is definitely an opportunity to benefit from these high prices, but it is a bigger investment than before." "If the weather works against them and they have a poor crop, that’s where downside risks appear." Canada really must produce a great crop this year." "If Canada’s crop isn’t as strong as possible, it will exacerbate concerns about food security."