Canada's oil production is expected to jump by about 10 percent over the next year, becoming one of the largest sources of supply increase worldwide.

The country produces about 4.8 million barrels per day of crude oil, and this figure could rise by about 500,000 barrels per day to around 5.3 million barrels per day by the end of 2024, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights, which would represent the highest level of Canadian production ever.

The majority of the growth is expected to come from oil sands in Alberta, although increases are anticipated throughout Western Canada and in offshore facilities near Newfoundland and Labrador.

Kevin Byrne, senior analyst for Canadian oil markets at Standard & Poor's, said, "Half a million is a significant amount. It's more than many countries in the world produce."

The sharp increase in expected oil production over the next 12 to 14 months is partially the result of lower overall production this year due to lengthy maintenance requirements at some oil sands facilities.

The country's oil production is expected to reach an all-time high at the same time that the expanded Trans Mountain pipeline begins to pump more oil from Alberta to the West Coast. Its expansion, which is in the final stages of construction, will increase the pipeline's capacity to 890,000 barrels per day from 300,000 barrels per day.

Byrne stated that large oil sands companies are not increasing their spending to pump more oil from the ground but are looking for ways to make their existing facilities more efficient at full capacity.

However, he warns that this level of production growth will be short-lived and could level off after 2024.

Byrne said, "This may be the last really big spike before we see a material slowdown in supply growth in Western Canada. We see the effects of the plateau starting as early as 2025 and 2026."

The Terra Nova field off the coast of Newfoundland and Labrador could potentially be brought back online next year, although it has faced several delays.

In 2024, Canada could become the largest source of growth in global crude oil production. The anticipated jump in the country's oil production of about 500,000 barrels per day is higher than the expected growth in the United States of 400,000 barrels per day.

Elsewhere, increased production in Guyana and Brazil could lead to growth of about 400,000 barrels per day from Latin America next year.

The expected growth in Canada over the next two years is anticipated to exceed the total added over the past five years, according to a recent report by Deloitte Canada.

The federal government plans to release a draft regulation this fall to limit emissions from oil and gas production and then force them to decline over time.

Oil sands represent about 11 percent of total greenhouse gas emissions in Canada, while the rest of the oil industry and all of the natural gas industry account for 15 percent.

Overall, total emissions from oil sands remained stable in 2022 even as production grew slightly, according to an August analysis by S&P Global Commodity Insights.