The federal government may fail to achieve its goal of reducing carbon emissions by 40 percent from 2005 levels by 2030, according to a recent review conducted by the Environmental Commissioner’s Office.

The commissioner’s reports addressed five main areas: the government’s fleet of zero-emission vehicles, building charging stations, monitoring fisheries, the status of environmental petitions submitted to Parliament, and the government’s progress in reducing emissions.

Canada is the only Group of Seven country that has not achieved any emission reductions since 1990, Environment and Sustainable Development Commissioner Jerry Demarco told reporters on Tuesday.

Under the terms of the Kyoto Protocol, which the House of Commons ratified in 2002, Canada committed to reducing total emissions by 5 percent from 1990 levels. After coming into power, the Liberals agreed to adopt the Paris Agreement targets.

The review also examined the government’s 2030 emissions reduction plan, which was published in March 2022. The plan details the actions being taken to fulfill the commitments of the Paris Agreement.

The review said some actions, such as the cap on oil and gas emissions and regulation of clean fuel, have been delayed. Jerry Demarco said, “We found that the most important measures to reduce emissions have not been defined or prioritized.”

Demarco also added that although this would be a major achievement and a shift in Canada’s emissions trajectory, it does not meet Canada’s commitment to reduce emissions by 40 to 45 percent below 2005 levels by 2030.

The review also criticized the models used to predict emissions in the plan, saying they are based on overly optimistic assumptions, with limited analysis of uncertainties.

The report stated that the need for high-quality models has become more important because Canada’s emissions have not steadily declined since 2005.

Government side:

The federal government issued a statement shortly after the report was presented to the House of Commons on Tuesday, saying the commissioner’s work is an integral part of its plan to achieve emission targets and protect the environment.

Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault said additional actions are being taken. Guilbeault said these include mandates for zero-emission vehicles, new limits on methane gas emissions, rules requiring a net-zero electricity grid by 2035, and a cap framework on emissions in the oil and gas sector. Guilbeault said in the statement: “We still have large initiatives under development and will continue looking for more opportunities to reduce emissions.”

Guilbeault also said upcoming regulations on zero-emission vehicles require at least 20 percent of new vehicles to be zero emissions by 2026, 60 percent by 2030, and 100 percent by 2035.

Fisheries Minister Diane Lebouthillier said in a statement that she agrees with the commissioner and will follow her recommendations to improve data collection.