The overwhelming election victory in Quebec led by François Legault is likely to lead to continued rising tensions between the provinces and Ottawa, causing more trouble for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, political analysts expect.

Jonathan Kelliss, Trudeau’s former advisor in Quebec, predicts that healthcare and immigration will become “points of friction” between Quebec and Ottawa, even more so than they already are.

Kelliss, a senior advisor at Macmillan Vantage, said: “I think with a bigger majority, you will see Prime Minister Legault working with other premiers to continue demanding a first ministers’ meeting and summit on healthcare, and ultimately increasing dollars.”

He said: “And as we know, Quebec, in any transfer of funds, will not demand any strings attached, and that is where the disagreement will be.”

Trudeau has been promising premiers early in the pandemic that he would meet with them to discuss the future of healthcare funding in Canada once the state of emergency ends. But no meeting has been scheduled, despite almost all public health measures being lifted.

The federal government has also been reluctant to discuss more federal healthcare funding in light of many provinces withdrawing their revenues by offering tax breaks in response to rising inflation.

Kelliss said many provinces are also looking to litigate over the federal dental care benefit, which some premiers see as Ottawa interfering in provincial jurisdiction.

“I think public opinion is very clear on one thing only: that the healthcare system is in chaos and the average Canadian really doesn’t care who is wrong. They want it fixed.”

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Genevieve Tellier, a professor of political studies at the University of Ottawa, says Legault’s strong majority and a new full term ahead could add new momentum to the provinces’ demands for more healthcare funding.

“I think this will strengthen the provinces. The provinces are very united, which is very rare,” she said.

Quebec is also demanding more powers in choosing immigrants to the province, which is “another potential source of conflict,” Kelliss said, given the federal Liberals’ disinterest in negotiating immigration levels.

Legault campaigned on a promise to limit immigration to Quebec to 50,000 people annually, the current level, claiming it was necessary to protect the province’s culture.

Martin Koskinen, Legault’s chief of staff, explained in a recent interview that one challenge facing the CAQ will be “making Canada realize that Quebec’s approach to immigration has to be different because of unique characteristics.”

He added that Quebec needs to find a way to make “immigration more French-speaking, more Francophile” and “ensure the future of the French language.” During the campaign, Legault raised the possibility of holding a referendum on this issue.

Kelliss said it is unclear what new powers Legault can realistically expect, as Quebec already controls economic immigrants, who constitute the largest group of newcomers to the province. Immigrants who come as refugees or for family reunification fall under Ottawa’s responsibility.

He also noted that Quebec, like anywhere else in the country, faces labor shortages and that the business community has been at the forefront of lobbying the government to bring in more immigrants to address the situation.

He also noted that there are shortages in construction trades as well as public sector jobs such as doctors, nurses, and teachers. If the new government truly plans to tackle this, they will have their own challenge in figuring out where to find those new people.

Eric Montigny, associate professor of political science at Laval University, said concerns are growing among the provinces for more autonomy, and Legault has played a role in that.

Montigny said: “Something is happening in Canada.” “It will be an interesting time in federal and provincial dynamics and will make Mr. Trudeau’s life a bit more complicated.”

Edited by: Yusra Bamtaf