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Canada: Have house prices stopped falling and started to rise instead?

Canada: Have house prices stopped falling and started to rise instead?

By م.زهير الشاعر

Published: May 9, 2023

After home prices went through a period of decline, it seems that home prices have returned to rising in April, causing some experts to ask, "Has the residential downturn in Canada officially ended?".

Experts say that prices will remain 5-10% lower in most markets - except Calgary, where the average prices are rising by more than 1% year over year.

But average prices in most markets have rebounded compared to March, with monthly gains of 2% in Vancouver, 4% in Toronto, and 5% in Ottawa.

While more inventory became available in most markets, it was not enough to keep up with the increased demand.

In Toronto, Robert Hogue, the economist at RBC, pointed out that the 6.5% increase in new listings "gave buyers more options to bid."

However, new sellers only met partially conditional demand.

The supply and demand conditions have tightened for the fifth consecutive month and now appear as stable as they were before the market downturn."

Hogue added that activity in the real estate market was also noted in Vancouver, where new inventory rose by about 9% monthly on a seasonally adjusted basis.

But again, that was almost not enough to keep up with the 30% jump in sales.

The question is, has the worst of the residential downturn reversed, and have home prices started to rise again?

The answer says that the purchasing power of housing markets across the country in recent months makes some wonder whether the worst of the property price decline has actually ended.

Hogue indicated: "There have been signs for some time that the cyclical price decline would be this spring, but the situation in April was largely different."

"While buyers are still suffering from the sharp loss in affordability over the past two years, buyers now seem more confident in searching for a home after the Bank of Canada halted its aggressive interest rate hiking campaign."

For his part, Paul Baron, Regional Chair of Real Estate in Toronto, echoed this feeling, saying that sales and the average selling price are improving in line with the Real Estate Board's expectations and recent consumer survey results.

Adding that many buyers have dealt with high borrowing costs and have begun taking advantage of lower selling prices compared to this time last year.

Explaining, "The issue going forward will not be the demand for home ownership, but the ability to meet that demand by obtaining the right supply."

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