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Bank of Canada warns and urges Canadians to prepare for a harsh winter

Bank of Canada warns and urges Canadians to prepare for a harsh winter

By Omayma othmani

Published: November 12, 2022

 

For years, central banks around the world have helped consumers and businesses weather economic storms. Crisis after crisis, they cut interest rates to help people get through them and even printed money and bought bonds to support the markets. But this time, the banks themselves are actively making life harder.

Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Maclellan said, "I'm sure some of this looks a bit illogical."

The Bank of Canada has raised interest rates six times since March. Interest rates have risen from 0.25% to 3.75%, and the bank warned that it is not done yet.

Maclennan also stated in an interview with CBC News this week: "We think we need to raise interest rates a bit more." Explaining that he does not know how far, he said "How far, we'll see."

In a lengthy interview, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Maclellan told Peter Armstrong of CBC that Canadians should expect more interest rate hikes and that a mild recession is possible as the central bank continues its war on inflation.

Also, the bank is now raising interest rates to curb inflation, which has reached its highest levels in decades.

Higher interest rates are likely to slow down the economy.

Canadians, who are already struggling to keep up with rising living costs, now face higher borrowing costs.

These higher borrowing costs will lead the economy to contract.

Maclellan said: "We already expect growth to be near zero in the next few quarters until mid-next year," adding that the slowdown in economic activity should be short and not too deep, but it will have an impact.

Canadian consumers are not the only frustrated ones, as economist Jim Stanford from the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives says the central bank raised interest rates too fast.

He said that central banks worldwide are looking at the current inflation situation and assume that the cause and solution are the same as in the last inflationary crisis of the 1970s and 1980s.

In the 1970s, real wages rose along with prices. This time, real wages have fallen while in the 1970s, corporate profits fell. Currently, corporate profits have reached record levels.

"So this is the opposite of what we saw in the 1970s." Stanford said that pulling out a 50-year-old recipe and reapplying it to the current situation is completely inappropriate. But Claire Fan, Chief Economist at RBC, says these recent numbers won't do much to slow the rise in interest rates.

And consumer price growth in Canada is likely to be higher in October. Fan said in a note to clients, "We expect the annual rate to rise to 7 percent from 6.9 percent in September, but it is still below the recent peak of 8.1 percent in June."

She says that the rebound in gas and heating oil prices caused prices to rise, which would give the Bank of Canada enough reason to raise interest rates further.

The rebound in gasoline prices is likely to push inflation up again in October. She wrote: "While there are signs that inflation in Canada has peaked, it is likely to take a long period of high interest rates and a weaker economy before price growth fully returns to the central bank’s target interest rates."

Also, RBC’s forecasts expect the bank to raise rates another 25 basis points in early December and then pause to assess the impact of all these interest rate hikes on the economy.

But this means anyone with an adjustable mortgage or HELOC should consider another increase.

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