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Published: April 29, 2022
A new report estimates the total cost of climate change to the Canadian economy in trillions of dollars by the end of this century if global temperatures continue to rise relentlessly.
The report comes from the Institute for Sustainable Finance (ISF) based at Queen's Smith School of Business in Kingston, Ontario.
In the report, researchers concluded that losses from climate change could range from approximately $2.8 trillion by 2100, under a 2-degree Celsius warming scenario, to about double that at around $5.5 trillion.
Costs gradually increase until 2050, then rise sharply and significantly after 2070. Researchers say that costs, in 2020 dollars, exceed by $45.4 billion the amount of investment needed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, not including potential economic benefits of transitioning to a low-carbon economy.
Director of Homeland Security, Sean Cleary, said in a press release: "Our research confirms that addressing climate change now more than pays for itself in the long run when we consider the costs of physical damages alone." "These findings provide important guidance for policymakers who need to consider that economic value is sacrificed every day that we fail to take climate mitigation actions."
The figures are based on the financial challenges Canada may face from events such as biodiversity loss, and damage to infrastructure from wildfires and floods caused by climate change. Citing a federal government report, they say this situation is especially bad for Canada, given that the country is warming twice as fast as the global average.
Under the Paris Climate Agreement, countries worldwide, including Canada, have committed to limiting the rise in average global temperatures to between 1.5 and 2 degrees Celsius.
Researchers used a model developed by 2018 Nobel laureate William Nordhaus called the Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy model, which organizations such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency use to calculate economic costs over time based on greenhouse gas emissions.
Researchers say previous financial projections have only looked at transition costs, or the risks faced by businesses and investors, in the shift to a low-carbon economy.
They added in their study that damage estimates are likely conservative, given that the study assumes global temperature increases affect Canada evenly, even though some regions of the country and around the world are warming faster than others.
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