Russia's recent withdrawal from the deal that allowed Ukraine to export grain is likely to affect prices in Canada, said Ofer Baron, a professor of Operations Management at the Rotman School of Management at the University of Toronto, to CTVNews.ca on Tuesday: "Both Russia and Ukraine are very large grain producers. And any long-term shortage in grain exports from either will change the price of grain, as it is a global commodity." The short-term agreement brokered by the United Nations and Turkey in July saw more than nine million tons of grain leave Ukraine aboard 397 vessels. Also, other foodstuffs and fertilizers were allowed safe passage through a humanitarian corridor in the Black Sea. According to the United Nations, the grain deal helped lower global food prices by about 15 percent, after they spiked sharply following the Russian invasion in February 2022. Also, Dalhousie University food security expert Sylvain Charlebois told CTVNews.ca: "It affects everything because it represents about 15 percent of all calories consumed on earth. You are basically seeing a global food basket affected by geopolitics and a massive conflict."

On the other hand, the United Nations, Ukraine, and Turkey plan to continue the program, and reportedly 12 ships had managed to leave Ukraine by Monday. It remains to be seen whether Russia will strongly reimpose its previous blockade on Ukrainian ports or when it will do so. In this regard, Charlebois, a professor and senior director of the Agricultural Food Analytics Lab at Dalhousie, said: "I really think it's unfortunate that the deal ended. This doesn't bode well for the future. It will be extremely difficult for Ukraine to muster anything, which will discourage farmers from planting anything, ultimately affecting wheat prices worldwide. And that’s kind of what we've started to see over the past two days, unfortunately."

According to Canadian statistics, the largest exporters of wheat worldwide in 2021 were Russia, the United States, Australia, Canada, and Ukraine. Since then, the war and sanctions have turned things upside down. Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, a report from Statistics Canada on June 29 showed that prices for bread, pasta, and cereals rose from more than 12 percent to nearly 20, while total Canadian wheat stock dropped by about 40 percent. Meanwhile, food manufacturers were paying nearly 75 percent more for wheat in April 2022 compared to the previous year. Canada also produces most of the wheat it consumes, which still leaves a lot available for export.

Additionally, higher domestic production in 2022 compared to 2021, and the reopening of Ukrainian ports for wheat exports in late July, led to a price decrease in October according to Statistics Canada analysis. However, prices began to rise again after news of Russia withdrawing from the Ukrainian grain deal. Wheat futures rose to over 9 US dollars per bushel on Tuesday, up from about 8.30 US dollars on Friday, according to the Nasdaq index. On November 1, 2021, prices were below 8 US dollars. Baron from the University of Toronto explained: "When prices move globally, prices do so locally." "Fortunately, since we are a very big player in the grain market ourselves and the cost of the supply chain in the domestic market is lower than in the global market, the relative price increase that consumers might face is not large."

Also, Charlebois says that although Canadians may have to pay higher prices at places like the bakery due to Russia's actions in Ukraine, because we produce so much wheat ourselves, Canada will not fall victim to the kind of global food insecurity that might affect places like Europe, the Middle East, and North Africa which heavily depend on imports. Charlebois added: "With geopolitics, the problem is that there is a lot of uncertainty, and uncertainty will come at a price, so there is an uncertainty situation right now against 9 US dollars per bushel, and uncertainty will force companies to pay more for grain, no matter where you are around the world."